As the 2024 European Parliamentary (EP) elections approach, the European Union (EU) finds itself at a critical juncture, facing significant foreign policy threats, economic instability, and widespread uncertainty. A significant concern looming over these elections is the expected surge of right-wing parties, which could dismantle the longstanding coalition of democratic, pro-European factions that have underpinned EU governance.
To grasp the political pulse of the continent, the research organisation d|part conducted an extensive study across eight EU member states—France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Sweden. This study, which included comprehensive surveys across all eight countries and in-depth focus groups in Germany and France, aimed to uncover the prevailing political attitudes, concerns, and hopes of EU citizens. The primary goal was to determine whether Europeans share similar hopes and fears and how their socio-economic experiences shape their political views, especially considering the expected rise of right-wing populism.
Economic concerns dominate
The findings paint a troubling picture: widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of society and politics, coupled with a bleak outlook on future living standards. Economic and social issues are at the forefront of public concern, with significant discontent regarding how national governments as well as the EU have handled recent crises, particularly the cost-of-living crisis.
Across the EU, citizens’ political anxieties revolve around economic instability, rising living costs, unemployment, and deteriorating public services. These material concerns fuel broader dissatisfaction with the political status quo. Many Europeans fear a decline in their standard of living, particularly in founding EU states like France, Germany, and Italy, and lack confidence in their governments’ crisis management capabilities. This sense of pessimism extends even to those who are financially secure.
Far-right supporters, in particular, are deeply pessimistic about the future and disillusioned with past crisis management efforts. Their growing support is driven not only by current economic hardships but also by a pervasive fear of social decline on personal and societal level. For democratic parties, merely opposing far-right agendas or defending an unpopular status quo will not suffice.
Internal erosion of European values
Even more alarming is the normalisation of anti-democratic sentiments and extreme right positions within European societies. These views are not confined to far-right supporters but are increasingly prevalent among voters of democratic parties as well. To investigate the spread of right-wing extremist attitudes, we asked respondents to approve or disapprove of various extreme-right statements on racism, antisemitism, national chauvinism, authoritarianism, and gender conservatism. We then created an index showing the mean approval rates of these attitudes.
The troubling spread of extreme right positions and anti-democratic attitudes throughout European societies poses a significant challenge. These views are no longer confined to the fringes but have permeated the mainstream, affecting supporters of conservative, liberal, and social democratic parties alike. This normalisation of extremist right-wing views threatens the very fabric of democratic societies within the EU.
Divided perception of the EU
Public perceptions of the EU itself are divided. While many see the EU as a symbol of unity and diversity, others regard it as redundant or unnecessary. Overall, the perception of the EU was not as negative as often portrayed in public debates. When questioned about the future trajectory of the EU, only a small minority opts to uphold the present status quo or remains undecided. The overwhelming majority divides into two roughly equal factions: those advocating for greater EU authority and those seeking reduced EU influence, even entertaining extreme scenarios such as their country’s exit or the establishment of a single European government. These findings underscore that most individuals are disinclined to maintain the EU’s current state.
Urgency for a democratic and inspiring future EU vision
Regardless of the electoral outcomes, the underlying issues of widespread dissatisfaction and anti-democratic sentiments will persist unless democratic parties rise to the challenge. Addressing these developments is a long-term task for all democratic forces in the EU. It is crucial for democratic parties to avoid adopting the positions and narratives of the far-right, as this further normalises those views. Instead, they must articulate a compelling and optimistic vision, disrupting the status quo while steering clear of extreme-right rhetoric.
If the far-right emerges as the predominant force disrupting the status quo or as the loudest advocate for solutions, even if unrealistic or unfeasible, it presents a formidable challenge to democratic principles and facilitates the mainstreaming of extremist narratives.
As shown, a substantive divergence exists concerning the desired direction for the EU, complicating the task for democratic parties to incorporate a more robust and integrated EU into their vision. Crafting a hopeful, positive outlook for the future that addresses both economic and social concerns while highlighting the EU’s positive aspects and future potential is essential. Such a vision is crucial to dispelling the clouds of dismay, counteracting extreme right-wing attitudes, and preserving and advancing the pluralistic and open societies that are the cornerstone of the European Union.
This text is based on a report by d|part, published on June 4, 2024. It can be retrieved under this link.
