The New Electorate is a PartyParty series that investigates the multifaceted demographics influencing the EU parliamentary elections. This series offers an in-depth look at the diverse voter segments across Europe, exploring their unique influences and pivotal roles in this year’s election.
As Europe gears up for the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections, a pivotal yet often overlooked group could substantially sway the outcome: disenchanted voters. These voters, disillusioned by traditional political structures and parties, are increasing in number across the EU. Their shifting voting preferences could dramatically reshape the political landscape.
Who are the disenchanted voters?
Disenchanted voters are a growing group within the EU cutting across various age, income, and educational backgrounds but are unified by their disillusionment with current political offerings. The Spring 2024 Eurobarometer survey underscores this trend, showing that 64 percent of non-voters cited their primary reason for abstaining as dissatisfaction with political offerings.
This dissatisfaction isn’t limited to one region or demographic; it permeates various social strata and geographies, signalling a widespread alienation from politics that could have significant implications for the upcoming EP elections. Historical trends in voter sentiment have shown similar patterns in national elections across the EU, such as the 2017 French presidential election where abstention reached its highest level since 1969, and the 2018 Italian general election, which saw a surge in support for anti-establishment parties.
Why are they disenchanted?
The disenchantment of voters across Europe can be attributed to a confluence of economic difficulties, political alienation, and unsettling social changes.
Economic stagnation
This key driver across Europe is particularly acute in regions that have historically relied on industries now in decline. In the former industrial heartlands of Northern France and parts of the Italian Mezzogiorno, for example, the decline of manufacturing and heavy industry has not been offset by new economic opportunities, leading to high unemployment and underemployment. 58 percent of residents in these regions believe that the EU’s policies have not had a positive impact on their local economies. This sentiment is not confined to these areas but resonates across other parts of Europe where economic recovery from the financial and economic crises of the past decade has been uneven and insufficient.
Political alienation
Many citizens, particularly in rural and suburban communities, feel that mainstream political parties do not represent their interests or concerns. This feeling of being overlooked is reported by as many as 72 percent of people in such areas, including regions like eastern Germany and rural Spain, where local issues and specific community needs often seem ignored in national political discourse. The gap between voter expectations and political representation has widened, driving a wedge between the electorate and those in power.
In EU elections, parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD), Spain’s Vox, France’s National Rally, and Italy’s Five Star Movement campaign on platforms that mainstream political parties do not represent rural and suburban interests. They promise to protect national values and challenge EU policies that they claim overlook the needs of non-urban areas, advocating for policies that would grant more control to national governments or better address the local impacts of EU legislation. Their success reflects a widespread dissatisfaction with traditional politics, influencing the composition and policy direction of the European Parliament.
Cultural and social Issues
Additionally, rapid demographic changes and intense debates over national identity and immigration policy have fueled feelings of displacement and insecurity, particularly in communities that were previously homogeneous. Such changes are stark in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, where the integration of migrants and the evolving cultural landscape have sparked significant social tension and an uptick in nationalist sentiment. These cultural and social rifts are further deepened by economic uncertainties, creating a fertile ground for populism and extremist ideologies that promise a return to ‘simpler times’ or radical solutions to complex problems.
In EU elections, parties like Hungary’s Fidesz, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), the Czech Republic’s Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), and the People’s Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS) tend to campaign on platforms that promise to defend national interests against perceived EU encroachments. Their national success often translates into significant representation in the EP, where they can influence legislation and policy discussions. Once in the European Parliament, these parties typically join or form coalitions with other right-wing and Eurosceptic groups to increase their impact on shaping EU policies and directives. Their performance in the EU elections may further amplify Eurosceptic sentiments across the continent, shaping the EU’s legislative agenda and its approach to issues such as migration, economic policies, and sovereignty.
Impact on the 2024 EP elections
Shifts in voter alliances
During the 2019 European Parliament (EP) elections, significant shifts in voter behaviour were evident as disenchanted voters increasingly supported alternative and populist parties rather than abstaining, a trend likely to influence the 2024 elections similarly. In Italy, the Five Star Movement (M5S) captured 17 percent of the vote, reflecting its appeal with an anti-establishment and Eurosceptic platform, while Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 11 percent, mobilising voters frustrated with the mainstream political discourse, especially on issues like immigration and EU governance. These results show a growing openness towards parties that promise to upend the status quo, suggesting that the upcoming elections could see further shifts if mainstream parties do not effectively address voter disenchantment. Current projections suggest more gains for such parties.
Lower voter turnout?
If disenchanted voters choose to abstain, it could lead to historically low turnout rates, undermining the legitimacy and altering the composition of the Parliament. However, opinion poling suggests participation is likely to increase this time. Low turnout tends to disproportionately benefit smaller, often more radical parties that can mobilise their dedicated bases effectively. This scenario could result in a Parliament that does not accurately reflect the broader European electorate, skewing policy agendas and potentially straining the EU’s cohesion. Engaging these voters is crucial to maintaining the integrity and representativeness of the EP.
Unexpected electoral outcomes
The unpredictable voting patterns of disenchanted voters could lead to surprising outcomes in the 2024 European Parliament elections, potentially favouring new or non-traditional parties. This was evident in the 2019 European elections when the Brexit Party in the UK, a relatively new and non-traditional entity, achieved significant success (after the UK had already voted to leave the EU) by capitalising on voter dissatisfaction with the traditional major parties, and their failure to campaign for seats they would never take up. Such shifts demonstrate how disenchanted voters can dramatically impact the political landscape, underscoring the potential for unexpected results in upcoming elections.
Strategies to re-engage disenchanted voters
To regain trust, political parties must implement economic policies that offer real change and jobs, especially in underdeveloped areas. This includes targeted investments in infrastructure and initiatives aimed at creating jobs, which are particularly crucial for revitalising post-industrial cities.
Improving political engagement might require electoral reforms to better represent these disenchanted voters, ensuring their voices are heard. Additionally, strengthening grassroots efforts and focusing on local issues can rebuild trust among disillusioned voters. Successful local movements that have directly engaged voters and influenced policy demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.
Addressing their concerns is essential, not just for electoral success but for the health of European democracy. This proactive engagement is crucial for shaping immediate electoral outcomes and for ensuring the long-term stability and integrity of the EU.
