Last Sunday, EU citizens across the continent headed to the polls in the European Parliament (EP) elections. In a few countries, voters also cast ballots in national and regional elections. Here, we dive into the key take-aways from these dual-election results.
Belgium’s triple election day
Sunday saw three elections take place in Belgium. Voters determined their representatives at the regional, national, and European level.
The right-wing Nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) emerged as the biggest winner in Belgium’s parliamentary elections, securing 16.7 percent of votes. This result ensures that the N-VA remains the largest group in the Belgian parliament. The extreme-right Vlaams Belang (VB) made the most significant gains, ending with 13.7 percent support in parliamentary elections. Despite predictions, hard-right VB—which wants to divide up Belgium in order for the Flemish region to become an independent state—fell short of being the victor in Flanders but came out slightly ahead of N-VA in the EP elections, with 14.5 percent support compared to NV-A’s 14 percent. This indicates an electorate more willing to vote for extremists at the European level.
Prime Minister De Croo’s Flemish liberal party, OpenVLD, suffered dramatic losses in both the EU and national elections, winning just 5.5 percent of the vote. Consequently, De Croo resigned as Prime Minister, although he will stay on until a new government is formed—a process that is likely to take months due to Belgium’s complex political architecture. Meanwhile, the French-speaking liberal party Mouvement Reformateur (MR) won the most votes of any party in the capital region of Brussels and the French-speaking region of Wallonia, unseating the socialist party that had dominated these regions for decades.
The winners, MR and N-VA, campaigned on right-wing economic reforms aimed at reducing the country’s deficit. However, the parties are not natural coalition partners. N-VA is a Flemish nationalist party that wants a minimal federal government focused and for the regional government’s of Flanders and Wallonia to have greater independence. The conservative-liberal MR is interested in implementing reforms such as lowering taxes. The current coalition government consists of seven parties and took over a year of talks before the government was formed. We can expect similarly complex and challenging negotiations ahead.
Bulgaria’s political stalemate
In Bulgaria, citizens voted in both national and EP elections for the sixth time in three years, reflecting ongoing instability. Despite the double election, there was a high degree of apathy and voter turnout stood at around just 30 percent, percent, the lowest it has been since the country ceased to be a satellite-state of the Soviet Union in 1989. Turnout for the EP elections had been over 39 percent in 2019, indicating a weary electorate.
The liberal-conservative Citizens for European Development (GERB) emerged on top in both elections but will need to form a coalition with at least two other parties in order to form a government, which will be challenging. The results of Sunday’s election are unlikely to improve the political turmoil the country has experienced in recent years. The parliament will remain fragmented following Sunday’s vote and another snap election is likely to take place later this year, experts say.
GERB’s leader, former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, is a controversial figure accused of corruption. Despite this, GERB received about 24 percent of the vote, followed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) at 16.6percent. The MRF’s success is partly due to its new ethnic Bulgarian leader, which broadened its appeal. The pro-European, reformist alliance led by We Continue the Change (PP) lost support due to its previous coalition with GERB, which failed over judiciary reform disagreements. The ultra-nationalist, pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party came in fourth with 13.4 percent of the vote.
The results indicate continued political fragmentation, with no clear governing coalition in sight. Another election may be necessary to resolve the deadlock.
Hungary’s seismic shift
In Hungary, the EP elections dealt a blow to the country’s powerful Prime Minister Vitktor Orbán and his Fidesz party. The party suffered its largest defeat in 18 years, down 11 percent from the previous EP elections. The last time the party failed to win over half the vote in either national or European elections was 2004. Despite this, Fidesz still came in first place, winning 44.5 percent of votes.
Much of Fidesz’s losses can be attributed to Peter Magyar, a former Fidesz-insider turned opposition candidate. Magyar appealed to voters by vowing to end the corruption that is rife in Orbán’s ruling party to which Magyar formerly belonged. He promised to unfreeze the billions in EU funding that is being withheld from Hungary over rule of law concerns.
The party behind Magyar, Respect and Freedom (TISZA), won 30 percent and is now the largest opposition party in the Hungarian parliament. The traditional opposition to Orbàn’s Fidesz, the green and the social-democrat parties, had disappointing results, with both falling short of the threshold required to enter the European Parliament.
On Sunday, Hungarians also voted in local elections. The Budapest mayoral race was extremely close. Fidesz withdrew their candidate shortly before the election in hope that support would coalesce around Dávid Vitézy, a former Fidesz technocrat. Their aim was to unseat the opposition incumbent, Gergely Karácsony, the progressive joint candidate who is ahead by just a few hundred votes. Vitézy has called for a recount.
Final thoughts
The dual elections in Belgium, Bulgaria, and Hungary highlight some important trends and challenges in these countrie’s political scenes. The rise of the far-right Vlaams Belang and the dominance of the N-VA show a move towards extreme nationalist views, especially in Flanders. Prime Minister De Croo’s resignation and the tough coalition talks ahead point to the ongoing political complexity.
Voter apathy and political stalemate are major issues in Bulgaria. The GERB party needs to team up with at least two other parties to govern, and its controversial leader adds to the chaos. The continued fragmentation means more instability, so engaging a tired electorate and building broad coalitions is key.
Finally, Fidesz’s significant losses and the rise of the opposition party TISZA signal potential change. Opposition gains highlight the importance of anti-corruption measures and leveraging voter dissatisfaction with long-time incumbents.
In short, these elections reveal shifts towards nationalism, coalition challenges, and voter disengagement.
