As Europe starts voting in four days of European Parliament (EP) elections, the spectre of the far-right threat looms larger than ever, threatening to reshape the continent’s political landscape. With the potential to secure more seats, nationalist factions could wield significant influence over parliamentary legislative efforts, obstructing initiatives and conceivably altering the trajectory of the entire European Union (EU). Adding the new extra seats, concerns mount over which parties will form a majority, and whether the centrist grand coalitions that have steered Parliament for decades will retain power.
Hence, in this year’s campaign, the traditional left-versus-right struggle has been overtaken, to an extent, by the emergence of an unwritten democratic, pro-European coalition aimed at curbing the rise of radical, Eurosceptical nationalist groups.
This shift is not merely hypothetical; polling data show a notable surge in support for far-right populist groups across nearly all member states, signalling a dramatic and potentially disruptive shift in European politics.
We will delve into what the data reveals about the likely composition of the next EP. Beyond seat projections, a multitude of factors measure the electorate’s pulse. As we dissect the nuances of public opinion and political trends, we gain a clearer picture of the forces shaping the EU’s future.
Are EP elections a priority for Europeans?
Delving into the intricate world of party forecasts demands a deeper examination of the demographics driving participation in the EP election and the motivations behind it.
Since its inception in 1979, the EP elections have witnessed a steady decline in turnout, plummeting to an all-time low of 41.61 percent in 2014 before recovering somewhat to 50.55 percent in 2019 Eurobarometer surveys suggest it will increase again somewhat this year.
Despite the expansion of the EU and the subsequent increase in the number of eligible voters, these elections have struggled to capture the enthusiasm of Europeans. Unlike national elections, which captivate the electorate’s attention, the EP elections have generally been seen as a secondary mid-term contest and often as an opportunity to cast a cost-free protest vote against national governments.
The trend is unmistakable when analysing the data at the national level. Across almost all European countries, voter turnout for EP elections has witnessed a downward trajectory over the years. While there are a few exceptions, such as Croatia, Denmark, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden, where the 2019 electoral cycle marked a historic high in turnout, the broader pattern remains one of decline.
For many in Eastern Europe, the uptick in EP election turnout reflects a profound scepticism towards their governments, which are often viewed as rife with corruption or untrustworthy. Consequently, they pin their hopes on European-level politics as a potential avenue for change also at local level.
A recent analysis by POLITICO delved deeper into regional variations in election turnout and the underlying reasons for abstentionism. The findings underscored that individuals with greater financial stability or a heightened interest in politics are more inclined to vote. The analysis revealed that a significant 30 percent of the non-voters of the 2019 round chose to not cast their ballots simply because they do not participate in elections to begin with.
This highlights a substantial segment of disenchanted voters who are susceptible to far-right narratives promising radical change from the status quo. In a previous article, we explored how efforts to engage these voters could significantly impact the outcome of the 2024 EP elections.
The uprising of the youth since 2019
In 2019, participation in the EU elections surged back above the critical threshold of more than half of eligible voters, thanks in large part to increased youth involvement. And the level of youth engagement is expected to increase further, driven by a growing interest in European politics among this demographic.
The high appeal of the EP elections for this group can be attributed to two primary factors: First, the Union’s concerted efforts to bolster its online presence had the intention to attract users, particularly teenagers, by providing them with informative content while stimulating their curiosity about European affairs. Secondly, there is a prevailing sense of disillusionment with local political establishments, which often fail to address the issues facing young people, leaving them feeling marginalised within the political landscape.
Amidst this surge in youth engagement lies another electoral niche vulnerable to the siren call of extremist narratives. Rising living costs, housing affordability challenges, precarious jobs and a general sense of disappointment with current reality compared with society’s promises to children have all contributed to a growing sense of angst about the future.
Compounding these challenges is the pervasive presence of far-right ideologies in the online realm, leveraged by social media algorithms that amplify their message of division and discontent. The digital landscape, known for favouring scandal while increasing engagement, provides fertile ground for the dissemination of anti-establishment views.
Many nationalist parties, including the Netherlands’ PVV, France’s National Rally, Portugal’s Chega and Germany’s AfD, have adeptly tapped into these sentiments, garnering the support of young voters who feel marginalised by the established political order. Moreover, while youth were traditionally associated with progressive ideals, the far-right has managed to lure many away from such allegiances.
Compelling examples underscore this shift. In Germany, for instance, the Green party held the top spot as the preferred choice among youth in 2023 opinion polls, with 14.6 percent. However, by 2024, support had swung towards the AfD, jumping to 14.5 percent from just 8.1 percent the previous year.
Interestingly, the study suggests that young men are more inclined than women to lend their support to extremist parties. This may be due in part, to the contemporary feminist movement, which empowers women to seek alternatives for the traditional power gap between the sexes. Meanwhile, some young men may find themselves grappling with feelings of isolation, turning towards nationalist-conservative narratives as a means of finding belonging and purpose.
Countries such as Belgium, Germany and Austria have set the minimum voting age for European Elections at 16, while Greece has also lowered it to 17 years. Across Europe, between 5 and 10 percent of the population eligible to vote will be first time voters.
Meanwhile, in Eastern European nations where voter turnout for European elections has reached unprecedented levels, Poland stands out. Here, the likelihood of young voters casting their ballots in the next elections exceeds the overall participation average of the general population.
A recent survey conducted in Romania sheds further light on this dynamic. An astounding 65 percent of young voters are confident that their vote holds the power to shape the outcome of the next European Parliament elections.
The far right shaking up coalitions
Post-pandemic and wartime social tensions have propelled far-right parties in national opinion polls across most EU member states. A January study by the European Council on Foreign Relations revealed a surge in nationalist sentiment and anti-establishment fervour nearly everywhere in the Union. These parties, positioning themselves as staunch adversaries of the EU in national rallies, are set to become significant internal disruptors.
Their increased presence in the new parliamentary setup could alter or at least impede European initiatives. The study predicts that the rise of EU critics will reshape traditional coalition structures. However, disorderly debates and deadlocks in the plenary could also risk undermining the institution’s overall credibility.
The same research paper examined how the new parliamentary configuration will affect coalition dynamics, directly impacting the approval process for Commission proposals. For instance, the ECFR concludes that a legislative package such as the European Green Deal would struggle to pass in the new Parliament setup, facing rejection primarily from moderate to far-right MEPs.
Party seating forecast
Yet, the latest EP forecast opinion polls offer a surprisingly optimistic outlook. Despite the looming spectre of far-right factions gaining more power nationally, pro-European parties such as the European People’s Party (EPP) have consistently held onto their leading positions. Likewise, the Social Democrats have demonstrated resilience as the second-largest party in the EP. Together with the liberal Renew Europe group, they are likely to retain a comfortable majority.
However, beneath the surface, the real battle for influence unfolds among the smaller political groupings vying for their slice of the pie.
An analysis of opinion polls conducted since the last election cycle in 2019 consistently reveals the EPP and S&D leading the charge. This suggests that while far-right parties may pose a challenge to established coalitions, they are unlikely to secure an outright majority in the parliament even in an implausible pact with the EPP. Instead, their influence may lie in reshaping existing political alliances and changing the discourse on key issues such as climate change, migration and the response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Figures like Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from the EPP and Italy’s Georgia Meloni, whose party aligns with the conservative ECR family, have recently been observed cultivating a cordial relationship in anticipation of the election outcome. However, these newfound ties between EU leaders and more radical rightists have stirred criticism and drawn scrutiny from von der Leyen’s centre-left Brussels coalition partners.
The outliers
The political landscape was shaken up when Germany’s far-right group, the AfD, was expelled from the EP’s far-right Identity and Democracy group. This dramatic move, orchestrated primarily by France’s Marine Le Pen, following a series of scandals over foreign influence and ambiguous comments about the Nazis, has left AfD isolated metres ahead of the finish line.
Despite the upheaval within the EP, the news of the party’s expulsion from the far-right faction hasn’t significantly dented the party’s national support, according to recent polls. Nationally, the AfD is still neck-and-neck with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats for second place in the polls, trailing behind the conservative CDU, which is affiliated with the leading EP party, the EPP.
However, the party’s support, which once stood at over 20 percent, took a hit earlier this year after the investigative group Correctiv, reported on a secret meeting of some AfD leaders that discussed plans to expel refugees and immigrants with German nationality, evoking dark echoes of the country’s WWII era. This revelation sparked widespread protests across the nation, with calls for the party to be banned.
This isn’t the first time such a dramatic move has unfolded. In 2021, Hungary’s ruling FIDESZ party walked out of the EPP when it was on the brink of being expelled. Since then, FIDESZ has sat in the non-affiliated group.
By sidelining themselves, these parties risk undermining their potential to wield significant influence over legislative outcomes.
To the victor go the challenging negotiations
The mandate for those elected in 2019 was fraught with challenges from early on. From navigating the economic tumult of the COVID-19 pandemic to grappling with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant energy and inflation crisis as well as the swift integration of artificial intelligence across industries, the parliamentarians faced a daunting array of crises.
What promises to be particularly intriguing in the new parliament is how mainstream parties will navigate to seek consensus amidst the rising tide of nationalism.
Adaptation and cooperation will be key as they confront this new political dynamic head-on.
