The European elections have concluded, and this time around, it wasn’t a boring affair. The contours of a new European political landscape have started to form, setting the stage for coalition discussions and significant policy changes across the continent. Here are the main takeaways and country-specific lessons to highlight.
Key takeaways
The EPP’s stronghold
The European People’s Party (EPP) emerged as the clear victor, securing 184 seats, reinforcing its dominant position. This success allows the EPP to significantly influence EU policy, particularly in areas concerning industry, agriculture, and rural development. Manfred Weber, the EPP Group leader, emphasised their representation of these sectors, setting the stage for a rightward policy shift. The EPP’s coalition strategy will be crucial moving forward, along with expectations that they will favour policies which boost industry and agriculture, potentially at the expense of green policies.
Far-right gains and fragmentation
Far-right parties saw significant gains, although their internal divisions prevent a unified front. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (NR) secured nearly a third of the votes, while Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy garnered over a quarter. Despite these victories, far-right parties remain fragmented, complicating their ability to form a cohesive bloc. Importantly, the anticipated wave of far-right wins did not materialise to the extent expected. Still, with increased far-right representation, expect the policy agenda on the EU level to be pushed further to the right, along with more instability due to the fragmented nature of the far-right and their unpredictable policy shifts.
Von der Leyen’s path to a second term
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s prospects for a second term are promising but not guaranteed. She needs support from the EPP, Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe, along with backing from national leaders in the European Council. A second term for von der Leyen would suggest continuity in current EU initiatives, such as the Green Deal, although perhaps with more concessions to heavy industry and farmers. With far-right gains and their unpredictable shifts, this continuity may be the real reason why Von der Leyen will secure a second term.
This situation exemplifies what can be termed the “Schrödinger’s Spitzenkandidat.” Despite previous assertions that the Spitzenkandidat system is dead, von der Leyen’s unexpected popularity among conservative voters and her potential success highlight its lingering influence. However, the undermining actions of other Spitzenkandidaten cast doubt on the system’s future, creating a paradoxical scenario where it is both alive and challenged.
Decline of the Greens and Renew Europe
The Greens and liberal Renew Europe experienced notable declines. The Greens lost nearly one-third of their seats, particularly in France and Germany, while Renew Europe saw significant setbacks in France and Spain. This reshuffling will reduce their influence in the European Parliament, except where their votes are essential for von der Leyen. The decline of the Greens might deprioritize environmental issues, leading those consultants and activists from the green sector who focus on creating green jobs to reassess their strategies and focus on maintaining support for sustainable policies. With a diminished presence, Renew Europe’s ability to act as a kingmaker is key, considering the calls from the EPP and S&D to rebuild the existing coalition. Notably, an S&D MEP stated in an interview with Euronews that they are ready to negotiate with the EPP, highlighting the crucial role of the second strongest party and their most trusted partners, the Greens, in shaping the future coalition dynamics.
Key lessons from specific countries
France’s far-right surge and Macron’s gamble
In France, the RN, led by Marine Le Pen, secured 30 out of 81 seats in the EP, significantly outperforming Emmanuel Macron’s liberal Renaissance-led alliance, which managed only 13 seats. The European elections in France diverged from the usual centrist coalition building, witnessing a notable rise in far-right populism. This victory for the RN prompted Macron to take the high-stakes decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call a snap election, hoping to counter the growing influence of the National Rally.
Set for June 30 and July 7, the election could force a lame-duck Macron into sharing power with his worst enemies in government and will serve as a critical barometer for Le Pen’s chances of securing the presidency in 2027. Her Eurosceptic and NATO-sceptic positions, along with her pledge to prioritise national interests over international collaboration, represent a significant shift in both French and EU politics. Macron hopes the snap election will demonstrate that the far-right cannot win at a national level, but it is a high-risk gamble. It is not clear that other democratic, pro-European parties will unite behind the unpopular president to stop the RN.
Germany’s election rout and coalition crisis
Germany’s EP election results delivered a crushing blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition. The Social Democrats recorded their worst performance in over a century, with only 14 percent. This steep decline, combined with the Greens’ support nearly halving, raises questions about the government’s stability 15 months ahead of the next federal election. The centre-right Christian Democrats emerged as clear victors, securing 30.2 percent of the vote. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) finished second with 16 percent despite a string of scandals, capitalising on concerns over asylum seekers.
Scholz’s coalition, which includes the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats, is struggling with internal conflicts over budget and policy issues. The Free Democrats, led by austere Finance Minister Christian Lindner, are particularly at odds with the Greens, further straining the alliance. Germany’s latest populist party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), entered the scene with 6.1 percent of the vote, while The Left party, from which BSW split, managed only 2.7 percent. These results have intensified doubts about the coalition’s longevity, mirroring the instability that led French President Macron to call a snap election after his own defeat by the far-right. Without its central Franco-German engine, the EU could be rudderless at a dangerous time.
Meloni’s victory in Italy
Italy’s ruling right-wing Brothers of Italy party, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, is on track to secure 27.5 percent, marking a significant win for Meloni, who aimed to bolster her party’s vote share. The centre-left Democratic Party also performed better than expected, projected to gain 23.2 percent, up from 19 percent in 2022. Both parties’ successes came at the expense of their allies and closely aligned parties. The anti-immigration League, once the most powerful hard right party in the governing coalition, is now projected to take only 8.6 percent.
Among the night’s winners was the Left and Green alliance, AVS, which appears to have exceeded the 4 percent threshold to secure seats in the European Parliament. Among the losers was ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi’s latest incarnation, the centrist United States of Europe alliance, which failed to win any seats. This shift indicates a more diversified political landscape in Italy, reflecting voters’ evolving preferences and setting the stage for new coalition dynamics.
Spain’s PP Leads, far-right gains ground
Spain’s centre-right People’s Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, emerged as the leading party with 32.4 percent of the votes, marking a 12 percent increase since the last election. This result grants them 21 to 23 seats, up from their previous 13. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) secured slightly over 30 percent of the vote, a 2 percent dip from the last election, translating to 20 to 22 seats. Despite the controversies surrounding Sanchez, including a divisive amnesty law for Catalan separatists and a judicial probe into his wife, PSOE’s performance remained strong, losing only one seat compared to 2019, proving forecasts wrong .
The far-right Vox party saw a significant rise, nearly doubling its representation in the European Parliament with six to seven seats after receiving 10.4 percent of the votes, a 4 percent increase since 2019. Additionally, a new far-right party, Se Acabó la Fiesta (The Party is Over), founded by anti-establishment social media personality Alvise Perez, made a surprising entry into the European Parliament with two to three seats, garnering 3.9 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, Sanchez’s coalition partner, the left-wing Sumar, is expected to secure three to four seats, while Podemos is projected to obtain two to three seats.
Belgium’s election shifts and De Croo’s resignation
Belgium’s EP elections saw significant shifts, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. His centre-right Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats saw their vote share plummet to 5.7 percent, a drop of 2.8 percentage points from 2019. He will remain as caretaker prime minister until a new government is in place, which could last many months if recent history is a guide. Yet it will take a new government with full powers to respond to the voters’ signal.
The elections shifted Belgium to the right, but an expected extremist and separatist landslide did not materialise. In the northern Flanders region, the far-right Vlaams Belang, which had led polls, secured 21 percent of Flemish votes but was beaten into second place by the conservative New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), which became the largest party with around 25 percent. Despite the far-right’s gains, the results disappointed Vlaams Belang supporters, who had anticipated a more decisive victory. N-VA leader Bart De Wever, who said during the campaign that in the 21st century, creating a separate 19th century nation-state made no sense, ruled out forming a government with Vlaams Belang. He will now need to find allies from the centre and centre-left to form a majority in the federal parliament. At the national level, the Socialists came second.
Bulgaria’s centre-right leads amidst low turnout
A victory marked by apathy with a record low turnout of about 30 percent is what former Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition celebrates today. According to partial results from Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission, with 77.3 percent of votes counted, GERB-UDF has secured 23.18 percent of the vote. The We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) centre-right coalition follows with 15.11 percent.
Pro-Russian Vuzrazhdane ranks third with 14.44 percent, and the predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) has 13.12 percent. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), led by Kornelia Ninova, and Slavi Trifonov’s ITN party both surpassed the 5.88 percent threshold, obtaining 6.95 percent and 6.3 percent respectively. Populist-nationalist Velichie, despite failing to clear the threshold, achieved 4.27%.
Provisional projections indicate that GERB-UDF will take five of Bulgaria’s 17 seats in the European Parliament. WCC-DB, MRF, and Vuzrazhdane are each set to win three seats, while BSP will get two and ITN one. This election outcome underscores the ongoing fragmentation and complexity within Bulgaria’s political landscape, with significant implications for future governance and policy directions
Hungary’s election shake-up and Orbán’s challenge
Hungary’s election results saw the Fidesz party securing 10 out of 21 seats in an astonishing breakthrough against Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s long electoral dominance, with notable performances from other parties like Tisztelet és Szabadság Pártja (Respect and Freedom Party), led by Péter Magyar, who gained 7 seats. The TISZA Party has positioned itself as a centrist party, combining conservative and social-democratic values, and has focused on anti-corruption measures, improving social welfare, and enhancing education and healthcare systems.
Under Magyar’s leadership, the party has drawn significant attention and support, advocating for transparency and grassroots involvement in Hungarian politics. And it showed election night, with The Tisza party garnering 29.7 percent of the vote, foreshadowing a significant threat to Orbán’s illiberal monopoly on power. Magyar, a former Fidesz insider, campaigned on anti-corruption and anti-Orbán sentiment, promising to reclaim EU funds frozen due to rule of law concerns. This shift indicates a potential upheaval in Hungarian politics, challenging the long-standing dominance of Orbán’s Fidesz party and signalling a new era of political competition.
Another strong performance came from the Coalition DK-MSZP-P (Democratic Coalition, Hungarian Socialist Party, and Dialogue for Hungary), which gained 2 seats. This centre-left alliance, led by Klára Dobrev and including former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, combines social-democratic and progressive values while being a significant opposition force against Fidesz aiming to restore democratic norms and improve Hungary’s relationship with European institutions. Despite coming in first, this election marked the worst performance for Orbán’s Fidesz party in an election for the past two decades, garnering the lowest percentage of votes. From the 2019 EP elections, Fidesz support dropped 10 percent.
Poland’s Civic Coalition edges out PiS
With the lowest voter turnout in an election since 2014 at 40 percent, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO) emerged victorious with 37.06 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, which garnered 36.16 percent. This election marks the first time since 2014 that PiS did not come first, signalling a significant shift in Polish political dynamics. PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński acknowledged the challenges ahead for his party.
Meanwhile, the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) secured third place with 12.08 percent of the vote, and they celebrated their historic performance by vowing to oppose EU policies in Brussels. KO’s coalition partners, the centre-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga) and The Left (Lewica), obtained 6.91 percent and 6.3 percent respectively.
Slovakia’s left-right spectrum gains ground, increases polarisation
Despite the May 15 shooting attack on Prime Minister and Smer leader Robert Fico, which dominated the campaign narrative, the major ruling party Smer did not win the elections. According to the most recent data, the elections were won by the leading opposition force, Progressive Slovakia, which secured 27.81 percent of the vote. This is one of the largest wins for any liberal party this election season. Smer followed closely with 24.76 percent, while the non-parliamentary far-right party Republika garnered 12.53 percent. The minor ruling party Hlas and the opposition Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) received 7.18 percent and 7.14 percent of the vote, respectively.
Other parties failed to reach the 5-percent threshold, including opposition parties Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) and Slovakia (formerly OĽaNO), as well as the Slovak National Party (SNS), another minor ruling party. The non-parliamentary party Democrats, led by former defence minister Jaroslav Naď, also fell short with 4.68 percent. The main takeaway is that this is one of the largest wins for any liberal party this election season.
