The campaign for the European Parliament (EP) is over—we have all seen the many articles and opinion pieces analysing the results. An anticipated right-wing wave did not materialise, and while the right did get stronger, the gains in France or Germany are not an indicator of a new political order. The overall rise of the centre-right in Europe will not significantly impact the day-to-day operations of most political parties. This rise will make compromises harder and will make the life of campaign teams challenging as national parties need to work on holding national battles against these rising forces.
Policy-wise, with the political shifts in Europe, national parties might be keen to adjust their manifestos or policies. Yet, the elections have profound implications beyond merely securing seats in the Parliament. The outcome of this election will significantly affect the operational strategies, financial stability, and leadership dynamics of many parties across the continent, thereby shaping public perception and the future of these parties.
Beyond the Brussels bubble, the true dynamics of European politics unfold at the level of national parties. Having worked closely with these parties for years, it’s important to consider the inner workings of your local political family when analysing the broader European political landscape. Let’s examine these implications to provide detailed insights and examples from existing political parties.
Policy adjustments
As national political parties strive to align their manifestos with the priorities of their newly constituted political groups, significant policy adjustments are on the horizon. This shift in focus could lead to a divergence between the topics promised locally and policy compromises at the European level, a dynamic that journalists will undoubtedly be keen to uncover.
Moreover, the rise of the right might put many parties in a position to accept that Europe needs the centre more than ever. Adapting policy to go mainstream is not a new phenomenon. This occurred after the 2019 European elections. When the German Green Party saw a significant increase in their vote share, reflecting a growing public concern for environmental issues, other parties, including the traditionally conservative CDU or the liberal FDP, had to integrate more robust ecological policies into their platforms to remain relevant.
In France, after the 2019 elections, President Macron’s La République En Marche! had to adapt many local political priorities and compromise with other centrist and liberal parties to form the Renew Europe group, thereby influencing both European and national policy agendas. This was also visible in this campaign when Macron changed his positions on Ukraine and migration.
Documenting campaign strategies
European election outcomes often lead to shifts in campaign strategies and teams. Usually, agencies, consultants and teams are hired to run a campaign. Their contracts end the day after the election and they leave behind reports of what could have been done better. Often, these reports gather dust but are useful for the staff to learn from them. They can shape the strategies of future campaigns and prevent your party from falling into the trap of going down the populist route.
This is not a strange phenomenon. After the success of populist parties like Italy’s Lega and the French National Rally in the 2019 elections, mainstream European parties began adopting more populist rhetoric and focusing on national sovereignty issues to attract voters. For example, the Labour Party in the UK embraced Brexit and national control over immigration in subsequent campaigns to regain ground lost to the Brexit Party and the Conservatives.
Financial Implications
Electoral success can lead to increased funding and resources. The allocation of seats in the EP determines funding national parties receive from European bodies. For example, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) will secure substantial financial support as they remain the two most prominent European groups. This allows them to maintain their party infrastructures and campaign consultants at the European level.
While European parties cannot directly support the national parties, they can help them with services to improve their operational capabilities. It is in the national parties’ interest to be in a family that can fund non-campaign-related activities to expand their message nationally in elections.
The election results also impact donor confidence. Successful performance in European elections can boost donations. Five years ago, the rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD) led to an increase in private contributions following their strong showing. This allowed them to build the structure that boosted their performance in this European election, despite the many scandals and a turbulent campaign.
Staff stability and morale
The EP election outcomes significantly impact the lives of political party staff, dictating their job security, morale, and the overall working environment. A poor performance can lead to a cascade of challenges. Job security becomes a pressing concern as parties may need to cut back on expenses, resulting in layoffs or reduced hours. Staff morale typically takes a hit, with many feeling demoralised and uncertain about their future within the party.
Financial difficulties often accompany poor performance, impacting the party’s ability to fund operations and staff salaries, leading to a leaner operation. Additionally, party staff are usually tasked with reassessing strategies to address the reasons behind the electoral failure, which can mean increased workloads and pressure to perform. Independent of failure or success, the party may also lose more competent staffers to positions assisting newly elected MEPs since those jobs are often better paid, even if this means moving to Brussels and joining the Luxury Erasmus lifestyle.
Conversely, for those parties with a successful performance, this can bring a wave of positivity and opportunity. Job stability improves, and there may even be new hiring as the party gears up for increased responsibilities within the European Parliament. Morale and motivation soar, fostering a positive and enthusiastic working environment. Better election results also translate into enhanced funding and resources, allowing expanded operations and improved compensation.
Leadership changes
Leadership changes are a common consequence of European election outcomes. Leaders who preside over significant electoral gains often consolidate their power, while those who underperform may face calls for resignation. Take the example of Andrea Nahles, the leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) six years ago. After the SPD suffered a significant loss, coming third with only 15.8 percent of the vote in 2019, Nahles resigned from her position as party leader.
As many parties underperformed on the liberal, green, and social democratic fronts, leaders are expected to consider stepping down to rebuild trust with supporters and the caucus itself. Stepping down is not a sign of weakness; instead, it can be a brilliant political move to keep the base engaged and make them feel that they have a say in reshaping future victories. Many leaders who step down eventually run again, seeking renewed legitimacy.
Public perception and legitimacy
The performance of national parties in European elections affects their legitimacy and public perception at the national level. The success of the Greens in Germany in the 2019 elections not only bolstered their credibility but also enhanced their influence in national politics, leading to their significant role in forming the government coalition in 2021. Likewise, Europe must prepare for a wave of parties from the nationalist right to join coalition governments. As alarming as this might seem for many, this means that parties in the centre and the left need to reinforce their strategies to ensure that liberal democracy is not threatened.
The coming weeks will focus on the formation of the new European Parliament and the anticipated re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission. Yet, keep an eye on the inner dynamics of the many national parties across Europe; a lot is about to happen. If you work for a national party or if you’re an active member, think of how the above considerations may affect you. Remember, the next campaign starts the day after the election!
