The Party of European Socialists (PES), a cornerstone of centre-left ideology in European politics, is gearing up for the European Parliament (EP) elections with a manifesto that champions social justice, solidarity, and progressive policies. As one of the two major political party families, the PES wields significant influence, shaping the direction of European policies and legislation.
Representing a coalition of centre-left and social democratic parties across Europe, including heavyweights like Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), France’s Socialist Party (PS), Spain’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), and Italy’s Democratic Party (PD), PES is a formidable contender in shaping the future of European politics. Let’s preview what’s ahead for their Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the EP.
PES’ ideology and commitment
At its core, the ideology of PES revolves around the principles of social democracy and progressivism. Rooted in the belief that the government has a responsibility to ensure social welfare and equality, PES advocates for policies aimed at reducing inequality, promoting workers’ rights, and safeguarding the social safety net. Embracing values such as solidarity, inclusivity, and environmental sustainability, PES seeks to foster a more just and equitable society. Its commitment to European integration is coupled with a vision of a Europe that prioritises the well-being of its citizens and addresses the challenges of the modern world through cooperation and collaboration.
The power players: who’s who in PES
The PES boasts a lineup of prominent leaders such asPresident of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Joining them are Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Malta’s Robert Abela, Romania’s Marcel Ciolacu, and the controversial Portuguese Prime Minister in resignation, Antonio Costa, maintaining his role until upcoming elections in March.
Other notable figures include EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell and Finnish Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen, who recently unsuccessfully contested the ongoing Finnish presidential elections and finished sixth in the first round.
Another widely popular figure is former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who is assumed to be a potential candidate for a prominent EU position. Some viewed her as a strong contender for leading European Socialists in the upcoming EP election. Nonetheless, Luxembourgish Commissioner Nicolas Schmit was chosen as Spitzenkandidat – a choice that drew scrutiny, as many questioned if the PES had better options.
Key contributors and internal dynamics
The most important voter bases for the socialists are Spain, Germany and Italy. When it comes to Spain, although President Sánchez is embroiled in controversy over an amnesty plan for Catalan separatists, drawing widespread criticism and protests, his party PSOE maintains a steady 30 percent polling rate. With 21 out of 141 for S&D seats in the EP held by Spanish MEPs, the Spanish voter base remains crucial. The aim is to replicate past electoral successes, navigating debates over Sánchez’s leadership and the party’s future. Together with S&D president MEP Iratxe García Pérez, they will mobilise maximum support of Spanish voters, reminiscent of key messages and goals set in the last PES Congress in Malaga.
In Germany, the SPD, a major partner in the ruling traffic light coalition, holds significant influence within PES. Stil, their election result largely hinges on the popularity of key figures like Olaf Scholz and lead candidate MEP Katarina Barley, but also the entire government. Despite maintaining a 20 percent polling rate, the SPD has experienced a significant drop since the last election, losing their position as Germany’s second-largest party.
Things are becoming quite interesting in Italy. Rising star MEP Elly Schlein, now heading the Italian Democratic Party, the third largest socialist party in the EP, is poised to secure additional seats for the Socialists. With a remarkable resurgence, her party has regained its position as Italy’s second-largest political force. Launching their campaign in Rome on March 2, PES shows it recognises Italy as a key battleground.
Other key countries where Socialists could increase their seat number are Romania and Sweden. The Romanian Social Democratic Party, currently leading the government, remains at the top of the polls with a steady 30 percent support. Meanwhile, the Swedish Social Democrats have seen an 8 percent increase in the polls since the last elections while opposing the current far-right-backed government.
The Portuguese Socialist Party (PS) is still in government, but Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s resignation over a corruption scandal triggered the upcoming March elections. Despite this setback, PES aims to replicate its 2019 result in Portugal, with PS being tied in the polls with the more conservative Social Democratic Party.
Voter base insights
Socialist parties voters in Europe stem from working-class individuals, union members, people with immigrant backgrounds, and those advocating for social justice, seeking policies that promote economic equality, workers’ rights, and the welfare state. But the electoral landscape for the PES throughout the European Union is marked by distinct political and socio-economic environments.
In countries where nationalist and populist parties are on the rise, socialist parties have an opportunity to become the primary refuge for voters who oppose nationalist agendas. This offers them a chance to consolidate a broader base of support among those seeking a more inclusive and progressive alternative option. This is visible in nations like Spain and Italy, where nationalist and populist parties have gained substantial traction.
In Germany, the political scene is undergoing significant shifts. The SPD is currently grappling with diminishing support and a backlash against its government. This situation is complicated by the ascent of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has disrupted the traditional dominance of the SPD and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) over the majority of German voters. The SPD’s challenge lies in redefining its appeal to voters and re-positioning themselves as the key alternative, by underscoring the key differences between them and the other two major parties.
However, the presence of strong nationalist movements also highlights the nuanced challenges Socialist parties might face. For example, in the Nordic region, recent developments have tested the resilience of their traditional dominance, as seen in the examples of the last elections in Sweden and the recent Finnish presidential elections. This shows a demand for strategic agility even from the strongest socialist parties. They must articulate clear, compelling alternatives that resonate with voters’ concerns while navigating a highly polarised political terrain.
Election forecast and top jobs wishlists
The current polls give Socialists around 140 out 705 seats in the EP, 14 less than in 2019. Still, they remain the second largest faction after the European People’s Party (EPP), which puts them in a good position of negotiating a majority and top EU positions.
In terms of the current representation in the European Commission (EC), the Socialists hold a broad spectrum of portfolios, addressing issues ranging from foreign affairs, equality, economic development, and social justice to home affairs, cohesion and reforms, and international partnerships. Roles that underline their focus on promoting inclusivity, economic stability, and social rights, will most definitely be on their upcoming wish list as well.
Yet, it seems that PES is changing its usual strategy of trying to beat the EPP at all costs to a more pragmatic approach, focusing on influential roles beyond the Commission Presidency. The main indication for this being the selection of the 70-year-old EU Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, Nicolas Schmidt as their Spitzenkandidat. This controversial decision was backed by significant support from Germany’s SPD and Spain’s PSOE, two of the most influential factions within the PES. Choosing Schmit, who isn’t very well-known outside of Brussels, reveals two key aspects of the PES’s strategy:
- They plan to emphasise national campaigns within critical member states;
- Schmit’s rich background in both national and European political spheres positions him as a strategic choice for securing high-ranking EU positions after the elections, especially targeting the European Council President role, currently occupied by the Liberals.
Ultimately, their participation in the Commission will not only depend on their election results, but also the sentiments within the EPP itself, since probably neither of the two largest groups will manage to form a majority that easily by itself. The question now is whether the EPP will continue its traditional coalition with the Socialists and Liberals, or shift rightwards, as the support for both the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) groups are rising.
At PartyParty, we’ll continue to monitor PES and other political families throughout this election season to highlight the best strategies and up-to-the-minute coverage of the winners and losers.
