Former Prime Minister and now President Alexander Stubb’s advance in the first round of the Finnish presidential election was solidified this weekend with his second round win. His narrower than expected victory, with 51.6 percent of the vote in Sunday’s second round against 48.6 percent for his opponent, former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, was the result of a grassroots campaign that played to voters’ craving for stability and continuity amidst security concerns. Now exiting President Sauli Niinistö started his role willing to have a stable relation with Russia. However, since the beginning of the war of aggression in Ukraine his position has changed. Stubb was remarkably open about having a strong position to stop Russian influence in Europe. While Haavisto negotiated and signed Finland’s accession to NATO and also took a strong stand on Russia, Stubb took a harder line and came to the front with specific positions for example on nuclear strategic armament.
Before we dive into the lessons of this campaign, read our previous pieces for more background on this important election:
This election echoed recent French presidential contests, raising questions about voter alignment in the runoff. Notably, right-wing candidate Jussi Halla-aho obtained a remarkable 19 percent of the votes in the first round, leading to speculation about his supporters’ second-round preferences. Ultimately, Stubb’s centrist, yet conservative stance, offered a compelling alternative to voters concerned about national security and continuity.
Four lessons from the Finnish election campaign
Here are some of the lessons that we can draw from Stubb’s victory in this important election.
1. Voters appreciate a candidate carrying out a legacy of stability
Stubb, succeeding President Niinistö, capitalised on the latter’s tenure marked by stability, steady economic growth, and a balanced foreign policy. His association with the National Coalition Party and his experience as prime minister played pivotal roles in presenting him as a beacon of stability. His campaign capitalised on this incumbency advantage, emphasising continuity, experience, and leadership during growing tension with Russia. This is not a lesson to encourage parties to use former ministers for top positions: this strategy has often gone wrong. The main lesson is that Stubb represented stability when the time called for it.
2. Charisma and relatability are needed when you are likely to stand in an ivory tower
Stubb’s engaging persona played a pivotal role in his campaign’s success. In the debates, he projected an image of approachability, sincerity, and empathy, resonating with voters. He rallied with his British-born wife in most of his campaign events and campaigned personally on the street. This was a stand-out in the campaign. Stubb created an identity outside his centre-right party, which leads Finland’s governing coalition, by engaging with citizens at town hall meetings or participating in informal discussions. This grassroots approach cemented his base and attracted undecided voters. It helped to preemptively disarm attacks from the right pointing to his elitism. It’s a lesson for parties to remember that politicians running for office after holding high-level positions need to be humble and remember that their job is to connect with the voter on a personal level.
3. Navigating the right by showing the centre pathway pays off
The election’s focus on defence and Russia highlighted the need for a measured approach. Stubb’s campaign adeptly addressed these concerns, subtly questioning the capability of far-right alternatives without alienating potential supporters. Most of the debates focused on the fact that this was not a national election and the presidency was in need of a rational approach. Stubbs’s campaign raised doubt in voters’ minds about the dangers of handling such an important role to a potential rogue force that might complicate national security. While the attacks aimed frontally at Halla-aho could have backfired, this blunt criticism of the hard right paid off. The campaign focused on whether the nationalist right was too hot headed to rule. On that note, Stubb’s campaign also questioned Haavisto’s judgement on sensitive issues that raised eyebrows when he was foreign minister. This public questioning of his opponents’ fitness to rule helped Stubb to take the lead with a well informed electorate. A lesson for parties campaigning in insecure times is to question the alternative while staying as rational and measured as possible.
4. A simple approach to the complexity of migration and defence without being populist wins
Migration is an issue that has determined many victories and losses in politics over the last year. Most Europeans now consider migration one of their main concerns. We may think this exaggerated, but we cannot ignore the fact that shutting down discussion and demonising right wingers who advocate for more controlled migration is backfiring and harming many democratic political forces.
Instead of dismissing the fears of voters from the right, Stubb sought to address security in a humane manner. In his last debate, he stated: “We are in a situation now where Russia and Putin are using humans as a weapon (…) It’s a migrant issue, it’s a ruthless, cynical measure. And in that case we have to put Finland’s security first.” This type of message addressed fears and acknowledged the problem without whipping up emotions. It is a lesson for many politicians to not avoid an issue for the fear of coming across as populist.
Implications for future campaigns
Stubb’s victory underscores the electorate’s preference for candidates who embody stability, particularly in times of geopolitical uncertainty. His campaign strategy, emphasising direct engagement, a centrist path amidst rising right-wing politics, and a nuanced approach to contentious issues, offers valuable lessons for future electoral contests.
As Finland gears up for the European Parliament elections, political parties are reminded of the importance of adaptability and the need to connect with voters on issues that impact their daily lives. Stubb’s win serves as a blueprint for balancing policy depth with relatability, setting the stage for the ongoing political discourse in Finland and beyond.
