As the largest economy and most powerful political player in the European Union, Germany’s upcoming participation in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections is set to have substantial implications both domestically and across Europe.
Germans will go to the polls on June 9th for the first nationwide election since 2021, when Germans elected Olaf Scholz of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) as Chancellor, replacing the longtime Chancellor from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Angela Merkel. Since the 2021 federal elections, the SPD has been ruling in a coalition government along with the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP). The so-called traffic light coalition (the three parties’ colours being red, green, and yellow) has been marked by a high degree of internal disagreement with low approval ratings.
The EP elections will offer German voters a chance to signal their dissatisfaction with the ruling parties. The EP elections will also be an indicator of what can be expected from state elections later this year in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. All three of these former East German states are Alternative for Germany (AfD) strongholds. June 9th will be the first time Germans have the opportunity to vote for a controversial new party built around a former politician from the Left Party, Sarah Wagenknecht, and aptly named Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). It’s possible that BSW could take votes away from the AfD, not only in the upcoming EP elections, but also in state elections in the Autumn.
Germany’s political and social dynamics since 2019
Germany has experienced significant transformations since the 2019 EP elections, influencing its current approach to European and internal politics. These changes can be understood in three critical areas: the rise of far-right politics, economic challenges driven by external factors, and a transition from the stability of the Merkel years to a fractured ruling coalition with frequent infighting.
Economic challenges and public sentiment
Like many other EU countries, Germany’s economy was impacted by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany was heavily reliant on Russian natural gas, with Russia providing 55 percent of the country’s gas before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia stopped delivering gas via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which brought Russian natural gas under the Baltic Sea, directly to Germany. Germany had to scramble to find alternative energy sources.
Although the economic impact was not as severe as some feared, the soaring gas prices took a toll. Unfortunately, the country’s energy-intensive economy has been sluggish since then, with many businesses struggling with the high energy costs, coupled with high inflation and interest rates. There has been recent economic upturn, with the Federal Statistical Office reporting slight growth in the first quarter of the year. Whether this will improve citizen’s perception of the ruling coalition is not clear. But we can expect that an exit from the country’s slight recession will be helpful for the government.
Increase in crime and fear of immigrants
Last year, violent crime rates shot up by 8.6 percent from the previous year. A rise in crime alone often pushes people to vote for more right-wing or conservative parties which are perceived as being strong on law and order. However, in Germany, the crime statistics also show that violent crimes committed by people without a German passport increased dramatically: 13.5 percent from the previous year. Additionally, the crime statistics tell us that, despite only comprising 15 percent of the population, non-Germans accounted for 34.4 percent of all perpetrators.
These statistics are good fuel for the anti-immigrant AfD, as well as for BSW. Despite coming from The Left party and holding economically left-wing views, Wagenknecht has a sceptical view on open migration policies and has said that the number of immigrants must be limited so as not to overwhelm the country.
Fears about a Green transition
The rise of AfD can be attributed to myriad factors. The high cost of living and strong anti-immigrant sentiment certainly contribute. The Green Party and their environmental politics have also been used as a foil for the far-right. AfD politicians question why German citizens should have to pay for a green transition, with some even suggesting that climate change is not caused by human activity, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. In the Eastern part of the country where many were left behind after Germany’s reunification, there is fear about another transition, this time a green one, that could leave them in a worse position than before. For AfD and other right-wing extremists it is easy to stoke this fear and to scapegoat the Greens.
Key political actors and their outlook
In the 2021 federal elections, SPD edged out CDU/CSU (the CSU being the Bavarian sister party of the CDU) with 25.7 percent of the vote. CDU/CSU received 24.1 percent. The Greens finished with 14.1 percent, following a dip in the polls in the months leading up to the election. FDP came out with 11.4 percent. The AfD lost support from the previous election, ending with 10.4 percent. The Left party, Die Linke, finished just below the minimum five percent threshold with 4.9 percent. The party nonetheless managed to get seats in the Bundestag through direct mandates.
CDU/CSU
Two years earlier, in the 2019 European elections, CDU/CSU was the big winner, garnering 28.9 percent support. The Greens came in a distant second, with 20.5 percent. SPD ended with only 15.8 percent, a significant drop from the previous EP elections. However, the Greens and SPD are often vying for the same electorate, making a win for the Greens a potential loss for the SPD. AfD received 11 percent. The Left 5.5 percent and the FDP 5.4 percent. Being in opposition has been good for CDU/CSU. The party’s support has hovered around 30 percent for the last six months. The party is likely to come out on top in the EP elections.
AfD
Once consigned to the political fringes in a country familiar with the dangers of the far-right, AfD has managed to reach new levels of support, beginning the year at an all time high of 22 percent and currently sitting around 18 percent. The dip in support comes after the party’s Spitzenkandidat, Maximilian Krah, has become embroiled in an espionage scandal. His employee was arrested over accusations of spying for China. There is speculation that Krah himself has been involved with espionage for foreign actors. Prosecutors in Dresden have initiated an investigation against Krah on suspicion that he received payments from sources associated with Russia and China. Whether AfD support is further diminished by this is unclear. Krah has, thus far, refused to step down.
SPD
Although there has been frustration with Scholz’s government, SPD holds a similar position in current polls compared to the last EP elections. Recent polls place the party around 16 percent. That is, however, a considerable fall from the 25 percent support the party earned in 2021 federal elections. Additionally, it is a new political reality that one of the two major political parties of post-war Germany is now polling significantly below the radical right AfD.
Greens
Support for the Greens is similar to their 2021 results in the federal election, with recent polls placing the party around 13 percent. Five years ago, in 2019, there were major environmental protests in Germany, particularly from the Fridays for Future movement. The Greens rode that wave of momentum to a strong finish in the EP elections. However, environmental protests have shrunk in recent years, as other crises compete for people’s attention.
FDP
The third member of the traffic light coalition, FDP, has seen its support more than halve since the federal elections. The party currently polls under five percent This is a worrying sign for the party.
BSW
With Sahra Wagenknecht’s decision to leave, the future of the Left party has come into question. Currently, the Left is polling around three percent. If those numbers don’t change, the party may not remain in the Bundestag after the federal elections next year. Wagenknecht’s BSW is beating both the Left and the FDP. Polling on voter intentions from March placed her party at seven percent. The party has since fallen by about one point.
What to expect
In the last EP elections, Germany had relatively high voter turnout: 61.4 percent. However, young people voted at lower rates while turnout was highest for those in their 60s. Thanks to AfD’s success on social media, particularly TikTok, it’s possible that a younger base is more active in this election. Perhaps turnout will rise and be a boost to the far-right, which looks set to occupy a good chunk of Germany‘s 96 seats in the European Parliament after the June election.
However, one factor to monitor closely in the coming weeks is whether the AfD Spitzenkandidat, Maximilian Krah, is shown to have spied for foreign governments. Surely, such a revelation would shake up the election and potentially boost BSW or further support CDU. Support for the ruling coalition parties is likely to remain relatively low for now. A slight economic uptick will not be sufficient to propel any of the ruling parties to success this June.
