In recent weeks, Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, publicly declared he was contemplating resigning due to what he considered “harassment and bullying”, which was targeted not only at him but also at his wife. After the announcement, however, he decided to stay on in his role.
This is just the most recent event to highlight the degree of polarisation in Spain’s political environment. It is in this political climate that the country will hold the European Parliament (EP) elections on June 9th. Here, we dive into what we can expect from the fourth largest country in the EU, which will elect 61 representatives to the EP in the upcoming elections.
Spain’s political and social dynamics since 2019
Separatist movements
After Sanchez managed to create a minority government by gaining the backing of Catalan separatists, offering amnesty to them in exchange for their support, the regional elections were a test for Sanchez’s political gamble. On Sunday, the Catalan wing of the socialist party, led by Salvador Illa, came in first, and well ahead of the Together for Catalonia (JxCat) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), both of whom support independence for the region. The separatist parties fell short of the 68 seats required for a majority. This outcome strengthens PM Sanchez, whose government has made concessions to the pro-independence parties. The victory for Sanchez and the socialist comes as voters’ priorities shift away from the independence movement and towards issues such as drought and affordable housing.
Separatist movements have played an outsized role in Spanish politics and were at the centre of a serious political crisis in the country seven years ago. This shift in Catalonia will be a welcome sign for the government. However, regional independence remains a force in the country’s political environment. Last month, when the Basque region held local elections the leftwing, the Basque separatist party, Basque Country Gather, made historic gains. The party won 32.5 percent of the vote, coming in close behind the centrist PNV, which came in first place with 35.2 percent. Although the party fell short of first place, its success indicates a potential shift in the region’s politics, with growing appeal for a basque separatist party.
Resilient Economy
While much of the Euro area experienced weaker growth, or even recession, Spain‘s economy grew by 2.5 percent last year. Employment grew by 3.2 percent with unemployment stabilising below 12 percent. Meanwhile, inflation fell steeply from its peak in 2022 while energy and food prices dropped. Economic growth in 2024 is currently projected to be 1.9 percent. However, the Bank of Spain is likely to revise this projection upwards in June. The strong economy should help shore up support for the government, especially given that their fiscal policy played a role in Spain’s strong post-Covid recovery.
Polarised society
Despite the country doing well by these measures, Spain has been marked by an increasingly divided and hostile political environment. Levels of affective polarisation in Spain have increased in recent years and are extremely high at the moment. For a more in-depth discussion of this click here. This hatred between rival political factions has been highlighted with public bullying in Spanish Politics, disproportionately carried out by right-wing and far-right political figures. Notably, there have been baseless rumours spread about Sanchez’s wife, including that she is secretly a man and that her family runs a prostitution ring. The latest accusations against his wife are what pushed Sanchez to publically consider stepping down from his role as PM. The affective polarisation also means that, although Spaniards are in agreement on many policy issues, there is a growing cultural gap between left and right that leads to high levels of distrust of the other side.
Spain’s party dynamics since 2019
2022 snap election
In July of last year, Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez called a snap election after his centre-left party, Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), performed poorly in regional elections a month prior. The gamble paid off for Sanchez and the PSOE, which secured 31.7 percent of the vote. Despite the opposition conservatives winning the most seats of any party with 33.1 percent support, Sanchez managed—after months of negotiations—to form a coalition with left-wing electoral platform Sumar, which received 12.3 percent, as well as separatist parties who support Catalan independence.
In last year’s snap election, the far-right Vox party edged out Sumar by a very slim margin, finishing with 12.4 percent. The remaining votes went to two Catalan independence parties: the social-democratic Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which secured 1.9 percent, and Together for Catalonia (Junts), which gained 1.6 percent support.
2019 EP elections
The results of last year’s national snap elections diverged from the previous EP elections in 2019 when the S&D affiliated PSOE finished first, with 32.9 percent and 21 seats of Spain’s 61 EP seats. The right-wing, EPP affiliated People’s Party (PP) came in a distant second with 20.2 percent and 13 seats. The liberal populist, RE affiliated party, Citizens (Cs), finished with 12.2 percent and eight seats. The party chose to sit out the last national elections in July 2023 to consolidate their efforts in preparation for the EP elections this year. The left-wing electoral platform, Podemos-IU, received 10.1 percent and six seats in the EP. This alliance includes Podemos, United Left, and other left-wing parties. The far-right ECR affiliated Vox ended with 6.2 percent of the votes and four seats.
Most of the remaining votes went to pro Catalan independence parties. Ahora Repúblicas alliance, formed of the ERC along with Basque Country Gather, and Galician Nationalist Bloc got 5.6 percent and three seats. Junts received 4.5 percent of votes and three seats in the EP. 2.8 percent of votes went to Coalition for a Solidary Europe (CEUS). CEUS is an RE affiliated, big tent platform with regionalist parties including the Basque Nationalist Party. They secured one seat in the EP.
Where the parties stand now
In this year’s EP election, four main parties seem likely to capture most of the vote. In recent polls, the centre-left PSOE and the right-wing PP are both polling around 33 percent. The EPP affiliated PP had been leading in previous months but PSOE gained some ground in late April. The far-right Vox party is currently polling at 11 percent and the leftwing Sumar alliance is polling around eight percent. A variety of pro Catalan independence parties, including Junts and ERC, are polling around one percent. Multiple regional Basque parties also polling around one percent.
What to expect
This year’s EP election will likely result in the right-wing People’s Party gaining a significant amount of seats. PSOE will likely lose some seats after its successful results in the 2019 EP elections. Liberal populist Cs will also likely win most of their seats, while the far right Vox will make modest gains. This outcome reflects a country that is deeply divided, with a similarly sized leftwing bloc and rightwing bloc emerging as the major political forces. With the last national election offering somewhat inconclusive results and now the two largest parties, PSOE and PP, nearly tied in the polls, the EP election is unlikely to offer a decisive win for either side.
