Gone are the days when political campaigns relied solely on gut instincts and broad-stroke messaging. In today’s digital reality, where each individual has built a strong digital identity and where statistics have become an elementary skill in most fields, data reigns supreme.
When looking at how data is being used in the corporate world, advertisers understood quickly that the key to a successful advertising campaign relies on data quality and precise targeting. This realisation bore significant implications for their business success – from heightened brand awareness to enhanced engagement and conversion rates of users, return on investment and ultimately profit.
And what is political campaigning if not advertising with a political context? Drawing lessons from the titans of advertising, we delve today into how the fusion of data insights and tailored messaging is the linchpin for successful electoral strategies and favourable election outcomes.
The value of data in campaigns
When looking at one of the most iconic products in history, Coca-Cola, its unparalleled success owes much to its strategic approach of targeting every customer in the market. Coca-Cola achieves this by offering a plethora of products, catering to the diverse needs of consumers.
Translating this strategy to politics, a similar approach can be observed among far-right parties. As newcomers to the political arena, they adopt a strategy that appears to eschew targeting a specific niche of voters. Instead, they propagate a universal message, albeit one tailored to address the segmented concerns of the electorate.
In their bid to secure a significant portion of the electoral pie, data plays a vital role in their campaigning efforts – it offers digital clues about the electorate’s interests and behaviour. Therefore, by customising the content of their political advertisements, they strive to present a compelling alternative to the messages disseminated by the political establishment.
Indeed, a political party does not need to target everyone, as trying to persuade a staunch non-supporter can be costly and resource-intensive. However, it is more crucial than ever to address as many electoral segments as possible. This approach can either enhance the loyalty of existing supporters or attract new voters.
Here’s an example from Germany of how the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is using targeted ads to appeal to both gay and anti-LGBT+ voters, and to some immigrants as well as those hostile to immigration.
Renowned for its conservative and nationalist policies, and positioning itself as a saviour for our times, the AfD has succeeded so well in spreading and tailoring its radical discourse, that it has even begun to attract voters from immigrant and LGBT+ groups. Its messaging entwines the themes of migration, Islam and diversity to target different segments of the electorate.
Photo credit: Mish Talk
Translated as “My partner and I do not value acquaintances with Muslim immigrants for whom our love is a mortal sin”, this ad aims to attract LGBT+ voters by portraying immigrants as a common threat to their community and to Germany. The AfD describes itself at the bottom of the poster as “Awkward. Authentic. Brave.”
The hard-right party’s policies contain nothing to support the community. However, those who are converted by such ads probably believe it is worth taking this risk to combat what is presented as the greater evil.
Appealing to a different, more traditionalist segment, the next campaign slogan translates as: “Rainbow of Diversity? We already have it.” This message refers to the rich traditional culture of the country (definitely not of sexual, religious or ethnic minorities) and, of course, to the variety of women, subtly supporting the traditional family structure. The target audience, however, is clearly single men. The kicker slogan is “Trust yourself, Germany!”
Photo credit: Mish Talk
What is particularly interesting about their campaigning strategy is how the anti-immigrant party managed to attract immigrant voters as well. A recent report in The Guardian explored why this group chose to support a party that actually opposes their presence.
First, there is the anti-Arab message that creates an initial division within the immigrant community, as demonstrated by the campaign slogan:
Translated: “So that Europe will not become “Eurabia”! The kicker says: “Europeans vote AfD!”
Second, in their attempt to integrate into Germany, some immigrants distance themselves from the targeted groups, as the article explains. The party is starting to attract immigrant voters, outstripping their traditional support of leftist parties, by promoting a narrative of “good” and “bad” immigrants.
Furthermore, far-right parties have also reported appealing to younger voters, who were normally considered as a progressive group. However, with this group becoming increasingly concerned about their uncertain future, anti-establishment parties offer a promise of security.
It’s worth noting that this trend of targeting diverse segments and tailoring messages accordingly is not unique to Germany. The “Coca-Cola” method proved effective in Geert Wilders’ campaign in the Netherlands and shows similar trends among far-right parties in Portugal and France.
However, when examining this trend and its effectiveness in tailored campaigning, a recent report explained how mainstream parties adopting far-right rhetoric can regain the support of voters who were previously lured by extremist narratives. This is perhaps why all the political slogans currently visible on the streets of Berlin ahead of the EP election mention “controlled immigration”, “a more secure Germany”, “stability”, and “respect for the future”.
Given the distinct formulation required for campaign messaging when addressing different groups, we delve deeper into how to best utilise data to enable your party to craft different narratives in political campaigning.
Where do we find the data?
Well, the answer is simple – data is everywhere! It’s all around us; everything is data. Big tech companies and social media platforms are like treasure troves. However, they provide what we call third-party data, which can give us a broad overview but might sometimes be unreliable due to their secretive collection methods, while being subject to strict regulation. Still, since these platforms are the main arenas for spreading political messages online, it’s essential to understand their business logic and harness the data they offer.
However, investing in methods of gathering your own data will prove more efficient and secure for your long-term campaigns. Unlike third-party data, which may be aggregated from various sources and lack context, first-party data provides direct insights into supporters’ preferences, behaviours and sentiments. This data is collected directly from individuals who have explicitly consented to share their information. It enhances transparency, trust and compliance with data privacy laws, mitigating risks associated with data breaches or misuse. In our previous articles, we delved into how political parties strive to collect such data, whether through user input utilised to train self-developed AI models or via interactive apps that gamify the supporter experience.
How to analyse audience data and interpret the results
As companies increasingly invest in technical departments to develop their own advertising models, this approach isn’t necessarily mandatory for political parties. In other words, understanding how technology works is not obligatory, but knowing how to leverage it can be highly advantageous.
The main tech platforms typically offer users a range of analytical tools to derive insights from data. This can include descriptive analytics that summarise key trends and patterns. However, a more sophisticated analysis can identify correlations and relationships between variables, even forecasting future outcomes using predictive modelling. And fear not, AI can assist here, if you know what you’re looking for.
Data also allows for the segmentation of the electorate into distinct groups based on shared characteristics or preferences. This segmentation can be demographic (age, gender, income), geographic (region, urban/rural), psychological (values, attitudes) or behavioural (voting history, engagement level). Hence, as a political campaigner, it is crucial to be familiar with segmentation analysis techniques and make informed decisions on where, when and to whom exactly to distribute your message.
Implementing a data-backed up strategy
By now, we explored the power of data to tell us stories about the preferences of the electorate. Yet, the key of success lies in crafting bespoke campaign messages informed by these insights.
Here, AI remains a valuable tool, but it is the human touch within the messages that truly resonates. This underscores why a winning campaign message addresses the pressing concerns of the electorate, with empathy.
The challenge lies in articulating a compelling reason and crafting a message that persuades voters from specific interest groups to lend their support to your party. Consider this: what would resonate with a feminist voter? What solutions does your party propose to address their concerns? Similarly, how does your platform appeal to environmentalists, sexual minorities or marginalised communities?
What adds to the challenge is the ever-fluctuating nature of human interests, further intensified by the surging tide of information and the multitude of options available in the political marketplace. Yet, data can also offer valuable answers to these trends.
Nevertheless, all these factors converge to define the successful campaign message of today as powerful, inclusive and dynamic, marked by the ability to swiftly adapt to a plenitude of contexts and personalities.
