In the run-up to the European Parliament (EP) elections in June, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have carved out a distinctive niche, championing the principles of national sovereignty, limited EU intervention, and a eurosceptic approach. Understanding the ECR’s ideological underpinnings, key figures, voter base, and potential electoral outcomes becomes crucial for grasping the broader shifts within EU politics. This article shows the importance of the ECR’s ideological foundation, its key figures, and future electoral prospects, aiming to offer a sneak peek into the implications of their upward trend.
ECR’s ideology and commitment
The ECR stands as a coalition of right of centre parties, unified by scepticism towards deeper European integration and a steadfast commitment to preserving national identities. This group, poised to be influential within the next European Parliament, advocates for a Europe where cooperation is balanced with respect for the autonomy of member states. The ECR’s significance lies not just in its political weight but in its representation of a growing segment of the European populace wary of federalist tendencies within the EU. It was originally created by the UK Conservative Party in 2009 as a breakaway from the centre-right European People’s Party, which has been the dominant pro-integration force in the parliament for decades.
At the heart of the ECR’s philosophy is the belief in a ‘Europe of nations’, a concept that prioritises the sovereignty and unique cultural identities of each member state over the amalgamation of power at the EU level. This ideology manifests in a call for limited EU intervention in domestic matters, a critical stance towards the eurozone’s fiscal policies, and a cautious approach to the EU’s external borders. The ECR envisions an EU that acts more as a platform for voluntary cooperation rather than a supranational entity with overarching authority.
The power players: who’s who in the ECR
The ECR’s influence is shaped significantly by its strong and often populist leadership, bringing together a blend of national-level experience and a commitment to the ECR’s broader ideological goals, advocating for policies that resonate with the coalition’s eurosceptic vision. Their backgrounds and political trajectories provide insight into the ECR’s strategic positioning and its agenda within the EP.
At the heart of the ECR’s ascendancy are prominent leaders such as Giorgia Meloni from Italy’s Brothers of Italy party, whose politics signify a notable rightward shift within the group. Member parties, including Poland’s Law and Justice, Spain’s Vox, and the Sweden Democrats, further solidify the ECR’s conservative and eurosceptic agenda. The recent inclusion of Eric Zemmour’s far-right anti-Islam Reconquête! Party and the almost certain addition of Victor Orban’s Fidesz party from Hungary and the pro-Russian AUR party from Romania after this election raise questions about the future direction of ECR policy.
Internal dynamics
Beneath its united front, the ECR encompasses a spectrum of beliefs, from moderate conservatism to more extreme right-wing views. This ideological diversity, while a testament to the group’s broad appeal, poses challenges for maintaining a unified stance on key EU issues, potentially complicating its internal cohesion and external negotiation strength.
However, as current ECR heavyweights such as Meloni, PiS, and the Sweden Democrats have clear Atlanticist priorities, and with Putin-friendly parties like Fidesz and AUR joining the group, it is ultimately the “Russia” question that will test the ECR’s resilience in the years to come.
Key contributors to the seat count
The ECR’s electoral strength is anticipated to be buoyed by parties like the Sweden Democrats, Brothers of Italy, and Poland’s Law and Justice, whose national successes hint at a robust performance in the EP elections. Such a scenario, as projected by recent polls, could significantly enhance the ECR’s parliamentary presence, putting it neck-and-neck with the liberal Renew group for fourth place – behind the EPP, the PES, and the extreme-right ID. A notable development to watch is AUR’s potential second position in Romania as well as the almost certain addition of Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party to the ECR group post-election.
Voter base insights
The ECR’s rhetoric and policies appeal to a broad demographic of voters that are sceptical of the current trajectory of the EU and favour retaining strong national governance structures. This group often includes individuals concerned about sovereignty, cultural preservation, and the economic ramifications of EU policies. In countries such as Poland and Italy, it tends to attract traditionalist, often religious, provincial voters angry at multicultural metropolitan elites, concerned at Muslim immigration and a perceived loss of national identity and control. By tapping into these sentiments, the ECR has solidified its base, reflecting wider European political realignments that favour more localised governance and scepticism of power centralised in Brussels.
Election forecast
According to a recent poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations, the 67-member strong ECR, currently the fifth largest group in the European Parliament, will grow by some 18 seats, and could become the fourth largest group in Parliament, surpassing both the Greens and the liberals. Between these projections and the 12 members of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, who are almost certain to join its ranks, the ECR could muster up to 97 seats in the next European Parliament.
Source: European Council on Foreign Relations
The wishlist post-victory
In the event of a strong electoral showing, the ECR is likely to advocate for a reevaluation of the EU’s powers, pushing for policies that align with their eurosceptic and conservative ethos, with potential implications for the Union’s future integration efforts. The ECR is likely to focus on securing key positions within the EP and advancing initiatives that align with its core principles, such as reinforcing member states’ rights and reevaluating the EU’s legislative reach.
Further, as the ECR together with the ID could represent more than 25% of the next Parliament, and considering the EPP will remain the largest force, we should anticipate a reevaluation of the bloc’s policy on issues such as energy and climate as well as migration. This could lead to significant rightward shifts in the EU’s legislative priorities and the bloc’s overall direction.
The rise of the ECR and similar eurosceptic forces within the EP elections is a development that warrants close attention, since it could very well dictate the pace and nature of European integration in the years to come.
At PartyParty, we’ll continue to monitor the ECR and other political families throughout this election season to highlight the best strategies and provide up-to-the-minute coverage of the winners and losers.
