Serbia, aspiring for EU membership, recently underwent elections that witnessed a big-tent united opposition. However, the results, which the opposition refuses to recognise, were marred by reports of severe irregularities. What lies ahead for Serbia’s opposition and how will it confront President Vučić’s growing authoritarian control?
By following the 17 December Serbian elections on the ground in Belgrade, I was able to gain insights from key opposition figures and take in the election’s wider context. Spending election night at the united opposition’s headquarters and speaking with locals allowed me to understand the nuances of the mood among the opposition, as well as the broader implications of the election results.
Confirmed irregularities: a blow to electoral fairness
Despite efforts to present an alternative to the ruling party, the opposition, under the banner of the Serbia Against Violence (SPN) coalition, attributed the losses to systematic irregularities, especially in the local elections in Belgrade, where expectations of an opposition takeover were greatest.
Press room of the SPN opposition on 17 December, from the slogan of Change has started to the election night slogan of Victory has started (Photo by: Daniela Vancic)
Members of the international election observation mission, including the European Parliament (EP), OSCE, and Council of Europe, confirmed systematic irregularities, notably in Belgrade. They highlighted a range of voter fraud, manipulated voter migration, a non-inclusive electoral environment, and unprecedented levels of negative campaigning. Cases of the “Bulgarian train” tactics were also noted, where a voter is given a pre-filled ballot before entering the polling station and returning with a blank one. Moreover, observers flagged the blurred lines between party and state resources, casting doubts on the election’s fairness.
The international observation mission’s press conference on 18 December (Photo by: Daniela Vancic)
Opposition members adamantly reject the results of the elections and are calling for new ones under different conditions. Biljana Djordjevic, co-president of the Green-Left Front (ZLF), called the elections “an organised theft of the citizens’ will”. Stefan Janjić from Serbia Centre (SRCE) echoes the statement of “a brutal and unprecedented theft by the regime.”
Natan Albahari, Head of External Affairs of the Movement of Free Citizens (PSG), a member of the liberal ALDE party, stated that voter fraud cost them the local election, “I’m certain that without the irregularities, our list would have been victorious in Belgrade.”
The EU’s role: from observer to advocate for democracy
To avert an erosion of democracy akin to what has happened in Viktor Orban’s Hungary, the EU must refocus its lens onto Serbia’s opposition. But why haven’t they taken more substantial action already?
Firstly, Vučić’s decade-long leadership during Serbia’s EU negotiations has cemented relationships with EU leaders, diverting attention from opposition forces that are frequently rearranged and dissolved. Secondly, with 2024 being a pivotal year with EU and US elections, EU leaders might find solace in Vučić’s stability, despite his democratic shortcomings.
Yet, overlooking the rampant irregularities in Serbia would be detrimental to the EU’s credibility. These irregularities highlight the historical lack of European scrutiny of Serbia’s democracy, which inadvertently reassures Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) that they can sidestep democratic principles for their gain. At the same time, to loosen Vučić’s authoritarian grip, the opposition critically requires more political recognition from the EU and support from EU political families.
The SPN coalition has already made a formal plea to the EU in a letter, calling on EU leaders to initiate a full investigation of the election and to establish a verification committee before conditions are set for new elections. Janjić (SRCE), implores international attention, “The only important thing now is for the world to see what is happening in Serbia, that there are no free and fair elections.”
The EU has since begun to show much-needed attention, such as at a recent European Parliament debate, during which MEPs urged the Serbian authorities to thoroughly investigate and address reported irregularities. The European Parliament is set to vote on a resolution to conclude its assessment of the situation. The EU’s increasing scrutiny is a positive step, but also long overdue. Only sustained pressure remains essential to facilitate meaningful and long-term change.
Newspaper headline after Election Day: Victory of the SNS with irregularities, more votes for the opposition in Belgrade (Daniela Vancic)
Future scenarios: unity or division among the opposition
Given the unusual frequency of elections in Serbia, the prospect of another election in 2024 or 2025 is high. What is the future of Serbia’s united opposition ahead of the next impending elections? Is a Poland-style opposition takeover possible in Serbia’s near future?
Scenario One: Opposition Remains United
In this scenario, the opposition remains united, stable, and pragmatic in the face of electoral challenges in order to reset Serbia’s democratic trajectory. The opposition persists in their demand for EU intervention, leading to heightened scrutiny and involvement of the EU. As a result, the united opposition garners increased recognition and backing from EU institutions, drawing inspiration from the successful strategy of the Polish opposition. Equally important, EU political families dedicate meaningful time and resources to Serbia’s opposition parties.
With a unified front and a steadfast demand for democratic elections, the opposition gains traction both domestically and internationally. They highlight the need for democratic norms and principles, seeking EU mediation to ensure free and fair elections in the future. This sustained pressure and diplomatic engagement results in resetting Serbia’s democratic path, aligning it with EU benchmarks.
Scenario Two: Vučić Splits the Opposition
While only a united opposition can beat the SNS, the question remains whether uniting the opposition was an ideal approach in Serbia’s deeply divided, polarised political landscape.
In this scenario, Vučić manages to divide the big-tent front and create disarray within their ranks. His efforts to splinter the opposition tip the scales in his favor, undermining the solidarity that had served as his biggest challenge to date.
Thematic divides already arose during the campaign trail. Djordjevic from the green-left ZLF said, “There were different positions of coalition partners over some issues that were not the focus of our campaign, yet these may have created confusion among voters.”
Janjić (SRCE) concurred, “People were fed up with the divisions within the opposition, to which Vučić himself contributed to a large extent.”
Protests in front of the Serbian Electoral Commission (RIK) the night after Election Day (Photo by: Daniela Vancic)
Street protests in the days after the Election Day (Photo by: Milica Zivić)
A united, stable, and pragmatic opposition
The broad coalition in Serbia served as a beacon of opposition unity, drawing diverse groups together to challenge the ruling SNS. Albahari from the liberal PSG confirms, “it was a good idea that we ran as a whole coalition because we were able to draw almost all opposition votes to our list and provide the strongest alternative bloc to SNS.”
Janjić (SRCE) acknowledges the necessity of unity, stating, “The only way to overthrow the government in Serbia was to create a referendum atmosphere [for or against] this government. Unification was necessary.”
Djordjević from the green-left ZLF agrees, “In these elections that came after mass protests, there was no other way than going together.”
For Serbia, these elections may have served as its democracy rock-bottom, testing the depths of its democratic resilience and positioning it at a pivotal juncture between EU aspirations and authoritarian inclinations. To avoid the latter, the opposition needs to remain united, stable, and pragmatic.
The Serbian opposition and a big chunk of its population yearn for a more decisive move on the part of the EU – not mere observation, but an intervention in the form of heightened scrutiny and pressure on Vučić’s regime. The EU’s attention must extend beyond acknowledgement to more meaningful support for Serbia’s opposition parties. Such support isn’t just for Serbia’s sake; it’s integral for the EU’s commitment to fostering genuine democracy at its own border.
To achieve that, Serbian opposition should avoid the temptation of focusing on what divides them – possibly plenty of policy issues – and focusing instead on what unites them: unseating Vučić.
