President Aleksandar Vučić dissolved the Serbian National Assembly, calling for early parliamentary elections on December 17. He cited the need to strengthen democracy, address global challenges, and unite in preserving Serbia’s vital national and state interests amid difficult times, including tensions with Kosovo and regional issues. This marks Serbia’s 14th election since the 1990s.
The city of Belgrade emerges as a key battleground in these elections, where voter concerns, mass protests against violence, and shifting political dynamics add layers of complexity. The outcomes hinge on the opposition’s campaign efficacy, unforeseen events, and public opinion on critical issues.
Key takeaways
- Serbia’s 2023 elections are marked by complex dynamics, with key themes including public safety, Kosovo’s status, EU integration, and national identity. The aftermath of protests against violence plays a significant role.
- President Vučić’s socially conservative nationalist coalition, projecting stability and progress, faces challenges from the opposition coalition, “Serbia Against Violence,” focusing on systemic issues like corruption and economic challenges.
- While there is little doubt that Vucic’s grip on the media and government institutions will ensure the incumbents prevail nationally, the battle for Belgrade offers an opportunity for the opposition. Civic-left unity and ongoing protests create challenges for the ruling coalition.
Understanding Serbia’s electoral system
Serbia’s electoral process starts with the President announcing elections 90 days before the National Assembly’s mandate ends, using proportional representation. Candidate lists require 10,000 signatures, and the D’Hondt system allocates seats based on a 3 percent vote threshold. The new National Assembly forms once two-thirds of mandates are verified. The President can dissolve the National Assembly under specific circumstances, triggering snap elections. This is what Vucic did this time on November 1.
These elections are crucial, with a focus on forming a new national government, the provincial assembly in Vojvodina, and leadership positions in various municipalities and cities, including Belgrade. The stakes are high as they present a potential challenge to Vučić’s long standing rule.
Parties can go solo, but usually form coalition lists, even Vučić’s SNS does so. The Republic’s Electoral Commission declared 18 lists from parties and coalitions after the registration deadline.
Voter concerns and election themes
Voter concerns are centred around justice and public safety, Kosovo’s status, pro-European vs. traditional values, nuanced EU integration, social and economic issues, and opposition to systemic problems like corruption and state capture.
There are several election themes and parties or coalitions that will manage to position themselves strategically around those to please their voters, which will likely swing certain constituents’ votes in their favour.
Protests against violence: The elections are strongly influenced by the aftermath of protests initiated in response to mass murders in Belgrade and Mladenovac. The theme of combating violence, ensuring public safety, and seeking justice became a central concern for the electorate. The unity of civic-left opposition forces and ongoing protests contribute to the theme of mass mobilisation. Citizens, motivated by shared concerns and grievances, play a significant role in agenda setting.
Kosovo and national identity: The question of Kosovo and its status remains a pivotal theme, with parties aligning based on their stance. Some emphasise opposition to Kosovo’s independence, while others may prioritise cooperation or other diplomatic approaches. Needless to say, this is a minefield for the latter.
Protection of traditional values: Parties advocating for the protection of traditional values, often aligned with right-wing ideologies, emphasise cultural and social conservatism. The dichotomy here is created with parties that advocate strongly for human rights, including women’s rights and minority rights, especially LGBTQ+ rights.
Pro-Europeanism vs. Euroscepticism: The election campaign features a nuanced discourse on EU integration. Parties may distinguish themselves as genuinely pro-European, or emphasise cooperation with the EU, while maintaining relationships with other international actors like Russia and China. And there are also several anti-EU and Eurosceptic parties in the mix as well.
Social and economic concerns: Beyond identity and geopolitical issues, social and economic concerns feature prominently. The rising cost of living, service expenses, and national debt accumulation became key talking points, especially for the opposition, but also for the ruling parties. And opinion polls show that raising the standard of living is a priority theme for most voters.
Ongoing systemic issues: Opposition parties, critical of the government’s record on corruption, media control and state capture, position themselves as agents of change.
Contenders: who’s who in Serbian politics
Coalition: Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia must not stop
- Projected: 39,2 percent
- Previous election: 118 seats
- EU affiliation: Coalition (mainly EPP)
- Leading figure: Aleksandar Vučić
- Trend since July: steady
Parties in the coalition: Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Social Democratic Party (SDPS), Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS), Movement of Socialists (PS), Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), Serbian People’s Party (SNP), and others.
EU Stance: Nominally in favour of EU membership, but also in favour of cooperation with other international actors, namely Russia and China.
Coalition: Serbia Against Violence
- Projected: 25,8 percent
- Previous election: 26 seats
- EU affiliation: Coalition (ALDE, PES, EGP)
- Leading figure: Dragan Đilas
- Trend since July: upward
Parties in coalition: Freedom and Justice Party (SSP), Democratic Party (DS), Free Citizens’ Movement (PSG), People’s Movement of Serbia (NPS), Ecological Uprising, Green-Left Front/Don’t Let Belgrade D(r)own, The Together Party, The Heart Party.
EU Stance: In favour of EU integration
Pro-European parties united under the slogan of protests initiated after two mass murders in Belgrade and Mladenovac this year, where 19 people – primarily children and young people were killed.
Coalition: Ivica Dačić – Prime Minister of Serbia
- Projected: 8,1 percent
- Previous election: 31 seats
- EU affiliation: Coalition
- Leading figure: Ivica Dačić
- Trend since July: downward
Parties in coalition: Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), United Serbia (JS) and Greens of Serbia (ZS)
EU Stance: Historically cautious, with emphasis on refusing to recognise Kosovo’s independence and maintaining relationships with Russia and China.
Dačić affirmed pre-election collaboration with SNS and Vučić, calling him a “friend.” He opposed alliances with parties recognising Kosovo or those using pro-European stances for “anti-Vučić agendas”.
Coalition: National Gathering – State-Building Power
- Projected: 5,1 percent
- Previous election: 16 seats
- EU affiliation: N/A
- Leading figures: Milica Đurđević Stamenkovski and Boško Obradović
- Trend since July: downward
Parties in coalition: Serbian Party “The Oath Keepers” and Serb Movement “Dveri” (“The Gates”)
EU Stance: Opposed to EU and NATO membership, as well as to Kosovo’s independence; emphasises defence of Serbian national and Orthodox Christian identity, environment, and domestic economic interests.
Coalition: Miloš Jovanović – Hope for Serbia
- Projected: 4,4 percent
- Previous election: 11 seats
- EU affiliation: N/A
- Leading figure: Miloš Jovanović
- Trend since July: steady
Parties in coalition: New Democratic Party of Serbia (Novi DSS) and Movement for the Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia (POKS)
This list is led by right-wing Serbian-French lawyer and political scientist Miloš Jovanović.
People’s Party
- Projected: 3,2 percent
- Previous election: 12 seats
- EU affiliation: N/A
- Leading figure: Vuk Jeremić
- Trend since July: downward
This is the list of former foreign minister and president of the UN General Assembly, Vuk Jeremić.
Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
- Projected: 1,2 percent
- Previous election: 0 seats
- EU affiliation: N/A
- Leading figure: Vojislav Šešelj
- Trend since July: downward
This ultra far-right party list is led by convicted war criminal Vojislav Šešelj and his son Aleksandar.
Coalition: Good morning, Serbia
- Projected: 2,5 percent
- Previous election: 0 seats
- EU affiliation: N/A
- Leading figures: former Serbian President Boris Tadić and Saša Radulović
- Trend since July: downward
Parties in coalition: Social Democratic Party (SDS), “Enough is Enough” movement, “Stolen Babies”, Democratic Union of Roma (DUR)
They could not reach an agreement with Đilas to participate on the “Serbia Against Violence” list.
Minority parties
- Projected: N/A
- Previous election: 13 seats
- EU affiliation: N/A
- Leading figures: N/A
- Trend since July: steady
Some of the minority parties running on separate lists:
- The Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM), which collaborates closely with the ruling SNS, focusing on issues such as opposing illegal migration and promoting strategic partnerships between Serbia and Hungary.
- The Bosniak-Croat Coalition – “United for Justice”.
- The Party of Democratic Action Sandžak (SDA Sandžak) that focuses on preserving the rights and the specific needs of Bosniak communities.
- The list “Together for the Future and Development – Coalition for Peace and Tolerance” – comprising parties of various minorities, including Bosniaks, Vlachs, Hungarians, Croats, and Greeks.
- The list “The Political Struggle of Albanians Continues” – a coalition of Albanian minority parties.
- Albanian Democratic Alternative
- The list “Russian Party – Slobodan Nikolić” – pro-Russian party that recently received minority status.
In the election law there is a provision for the representation of national minorities. National minority parties that do not reach the electoral threshold (typically 3%) can still be awarded seats in the National Assembly if they receive a sufficient number of votes within their minority community. Therefore, minority parties can hold significant influence post-election.
Pulmonologist dr. Branimir Nestorović, the central figure during the pandemic, submitted an election list at the last minute called “Us – Voice of the People.”
PartyParty’s election forecast
The SNS-led ruling coalition campaigns on stability, progress, and their achievements. The slogan “Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia must not stop” underscores the commitment to continuous development.
The campaign of the opposition, and its largest coalition – “Serbia Against Violence”, focus on issues such as public safety, the rising cost of living, and national debt accumulation. Critical of the government’s record on corruption, media control, and economic challenges, the opposition coalition aims to present itself as a viable alternative.
Although another Vučić victory seems the most likely outcome, the elections do introduce an element of unpredictability, notably in Belgrade, where the opposition sees an opportunity to challenge Vučić’s stronghold. The civic-left opposition’s unity and the ongoing mass protests create additional challenges for the status quo. Ultimately, there is a visible complexity of coalition dynamics, with parties forming alliances based on shared values and goals.
While some alliances are already clear, there can still be post-election surprises. All parties will have a card to play when negotiating, especially the minority parties. The stakes will get higher if SNS loses more seats than anticipated, which seems possible, as the opposition is polling well. Yet the phenomenon of “fake opposition” and satellite parties always poses an obstacle to a change in government.
Another emerging trend is the active presence of some political figures from the 1990s, like Šešelj and Tomislav Nikolić, that Vučić himself tried to bury and is now revitalising. It seems that he needs more authentic “Chetniks” by his side right now to appeal to nationalist voters, but with the ongoing geopolitical developments, it is surely a worrisome trend.
