The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, eyeing an unprecedented third term, has tactically paired a referendum with the October 15 parliamentary elections. This confluence aims to impose PiS’ narrative on key issues, simultaneously capturing voter turnout and setting a trap for the opposition, notably Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform (PO). The goals are clear: rally your supporters, capture the undecided, and box in the opposition.
This strategy isn’t novel—former President Bronisław Komorowski (PO), in 2015, wagered on a referendum to enhance his re-election bid, but he couldn’t muster the 50 percent threshold and eventually lost the election. Current polls suggest the referendum could amplify party mobilisation. It also helps PiS circumvent campaign finance constraints, offering a blueprint for political strategists studying the dance between voter mobilisation and persuasion.
Inside the Polish referendum
Central to Poland’s future are the topics of the referendum: illegal migration, border defences, privatisation of state companies, and later retirement age. The four probing, if slanted, questions are:
- “Do you support the selling off of state assets to foreign entities, leading to the loss of Poles’ control over strategic sectors of the economy?”
- “Do you support an increase in the retirement age, including the restoration of the increased retirement age to 67 for men and women?”
- “Do you support the removal of the barrier on the border between the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Belarus?”
- “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, in accordance with the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”
Given the stark polarisation between PiS and PO, these subjects are bound to elicit contrasting reactions. This strategy not only reframes national debates but also funnels state resources into the referendum campaign, which would otherwise be restricted by finance regulations on elections.
Balancing persuasion and mobilisation
An interesting debate within political campaigning applied in the Polish context is how to balance persuasion and mobilisation. Even before the referendum was announced, there was a palpable sense of the decisive importance of this election. A striking 42 percent of Poles view it with the same historic gravitas as the first free elections in 1989, and another 33 percent believe they surpass that seminal moment.
Despite this heightened sentiment, projections suggest a turnout of only 57 percent. With the election a month away, it is doubtful the referendum will cross the 50 percent threshold for validity. Currently, polls show a near-even split among those who plan to vote: 47.4 percent leaning towards only the parliamentary elections and 46.6 percent intending to participate in both. It’s safe to say that PiS anticipated given, the turnout forecasts, that it would be difficult to cross the 50 percent threshold. It follows that the main motivation for calling the referendum was to mobilise its core voters, not to persuade others. And to this end, they have succeeded.
PiS can confidently expect an overwhelming 94 percent of its base to turn out and vote in the referendum. On the other hand, Tusk’s call to boycott the referendum had its impact on PO voters, with 75 percent of PO members heeding the advice. Yet, 19 percent remain firm on casting votes in both ballot boxes, compared to just 1 percent of PiS voters who will not. In the case of Poland 2050, a small centrist party, 45 percent of people do not intend to vote, while right-wing Konfederacja shows 15 percent abstaining.
The demographic most likely to vote—older, less educated, devout, and right-leaning—aligns perfectly with PiS’s traditional base. Here, PiS is not just trying to mobilise voters through the referendum but is also subtly appealing to them with carefully crafted questions. In contrast, the opposition faces a dual challenge: convincing people to support them in the parliament while advocating strategic abstention from the referendum.
The best political strategies are the ones where messaging is simple and clear. PiS calls on people to come out and show their voice, while the opposition has a tougher sell—come out, vote for us in the parliament, but don’t exercise your right to vote in the referendum for strategic reasons.
State entities in the spotlight
The involvement of state-owned entities in the referendum campaign adds a twist to the political tableau. These entities, including powerhouses such as PGE, Enea, Tauron, national railway PKP, defence conglomerate PGZ, and leading banks such as PKO BP and Pekao SA, form 20 percent of the registered campaigners advocating for the referendum. They stand alongside insurer PZU among the 68 entities approved for the referendum campaign.
While the law allows certain private entities to campaign on the four referendum questions, the alignment of their views with PiS’s narrative blurs the lines between mobilisation and persuasion, and between business and politics. They not only rally supporters but also shape public perception about these pivotal issues, resonating with the party’s stance.
As certified campaigners in the referendum, these entities gain free access to public media for 15 days before the vote. This relationship between political factions and state-owned entities isn’t new in Poland. However, under PiS’s governance, the bond is more pronounced. Historical data reveals that managers of these state-owned corporations have been staunch financial backers of PiS’s initiatives, often directing funds to media outlets sympathetic to the party’s cause.
This synergy has raised eyebrows. Many see it as a way to sidestep campaign expenditure constraints. The National Electoral Commission (PKW) expects these entities to focus on advocating for specific referendum outcomes. Still, the alignment of the questions with PiS’s narratives raises suspicion.
The prominent role of state-affiliated entities in the referendum campaign, and their extended media visibility, underscores the changing dynamics under the PiS rule. Government figures such as Jacek Sasin, the state assets minister, rejected charges that the firms are being used to covertly campaign for PiS, arguing that state firms have a legitimate interest in the referendum’s outcome.
Lessons to draw from the Polish referendum
As polling day nears, PiS’s referendum strategy reveals an intricate ballet of rallying core supporters while nudging the undecided. How effective these tactics will prove remains to be seen but they have certainly altered the election narrative.
The referendum has illuminated the relationship between state-owned entities and political agendas, a dynamic that may well redefine campaign strategies for years to come. Yet, beneath this veneer of state-corporate collaboration lies the age-old conundrum: how to balance the drive to bring out the vote with the challenge of genuinely swaying minds. While the world is watching anxiously to see which way Poland will go, political professionals will also be looking for lessons on the delicate dance between mobilising an electorate and persuading it.
