Poland’s electoral landscape oscillates between the age-old reliance on polling and contemporary digital instruments. Polling remains the keystone, gauging the ever-shifting pulse of public sentiment, serving as a key metric for political strategists and party operatives. Yet the digital realm has become critical for amplifying, fine-tuning, and broadcasting this message to the masses, an undeniable tool that if used well, could give the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) an unprecedented third term—or bring its demise.
Polling: the heartbeat of campaign strategy
For Poland’s political entities—ranging from the governing PiS party to the oppositional Civic Coalition (PO), down to the left-wing Lewica and the centrist Third Way—polling remains integral. However, poll frequency and depth vary across parties. Insiders, speaking off-the-record, reveal:
- Frequency and reliability: It’s hard to determine how often parties commission polls, but their significance is clear. Parties aren’t just restricting themselves to measuring support; opinion polls dissecting public attitudes, policy reception, and focus groups, are commonplace. The weekly poll from IPSOS (allegedly for PiS) underscores their desire for reliable data over fleeting media published numbers (like the ones seen frequently on TVP, TVN, Gazeta Wyborcza, and so forth). The two largest parties—PiS and PO—are those who commission the most polls in the current campaign, while Lewica and Third Way often turn to focus groups.
- Translating polls to strategy: Poll results directly influence party communication, reflecting voter sentiments in campaign topics and candidates. The electoral shifts and messaging changes of forces like the Third Way and PO hint at this constant adaptation to polling insights. Shifts in PO’s stance on issues like abortion might be reflective of their electorate’s leanings, as unearthed through focused polls. The vast majority of their electorate do not support compromise, only legal abortion up to 12 weeks, for instance.
- Nuanced messaging: Parties weave intricate communication fabrics using polling feedback, echoing techniques that marketing gurus employ. Campaigns harness terms such as “safety” that resonate with their target audience, crafting messages that align with public sentiment.
The nature and strategy of ‘secret’ polling
In Poland’s intricate landscape, “secret” surveys sporadically emerge, offering the public fleeting insights. While these occasional leaks garner media attention, the institutions behind them and their methodologies often remain shrouded in mystery. So, what’s behind this veil of secrecy?
Marcin Duma, head of IBRiS, provides some perspective in an interview with naTemat.pl: “The thing about internal surveys is that their main function is not cognitive, but persuasive and narrative”. He sheds light on a common political practice where politicians claim outcomes from internal surveys or focus groups, sometimes without concrete evidence.
Then, there are times when parties order surveys from a research company and announce them publicly, as PO leader Donald Tusk did last week during a speech in Elbląg. Interestingly, he specified the sample, time range, and the close results – PiS with 34.9 percent of the vote, PO with 32.8 percent. He narrated the results in a way to show the opportunity is at their fingertips, and nothing has been decided. With no independent access to such internal surveys, what’s the strategy here?
Wojciech Rafalowski, Associate professor at the University of Warsaw, explains the strategic value: parties use privately commissioned polling as an extension of their political propaganda. Because they want it to appear credible, they detail the specifics to discursively build this reliability. But internal surveys are more than narrative building. Rafalowski says they are done to test questions that each party would like to ask the electorate but which it would not be appropriate to ask them publicly.
For instance, if a party has a strong line on immigration but wants to keep silent on the issue—they use private polling to test whether such an approach would work among the potential electorate—all done in a way that is kept private and out of the public eye. So—check the position, ask what the voter would think if PiS/PO were to change its stance on an issue, and then utilise this data for strategic manoeuvres.
Navigating the pitfalls of data-driven strategy
The problem is that a wealth of data isn’t always a crystal-clear guide in political strategising. The interplay of many factors can affect a party’s interpretation of the polling data, resulting in mixed messaging or strategic errors.
Rafalowski emphasises the importance of responsive adaptation. He lauds PO for their responsiveness to the needs of the electorate during their tenure in office, often adjusting strategies based on polling insights. But it’s a different story when it comes to elections—and often, PO has not adjusted to the on-the-ground reality.
In 2015 and 2019, PiS mobilised its electorate around issues of redistribution—both economic and symbolic—drawing its cleavages on polling and statistical data that showed how the post-1989 transformation affected voters differently. Equipped with the same data, PO emphasised the benefits and success of liberal Europeanisation and the prospects of its trickling-down effect.
Rather than continuing to emphasise this vision in this election, PO has stuck to the issues, with a 100 point agenda this campaign, and pivoted their strategy elsewhere.
Other times, leveraging data—such as the overwhelmingly negative opinion of Russia in Poland—doesn’t bode well in strategy. The controversy sparked by the PiS-led Lex Tusk bill, aimed at investigating potential Russian meddling in national affairs, gained significant media coverage both domestically and internationally. After the bill was enacted, President Andrzej Duda’s approval rating plummeted from 9 to -28.2 within a week, and support for PiS dropped from 37.8% to 32.8% in June. The party persisted in its negative portrayal of Tusk but went quiet on calling for state-led actions against him.
What other potential pitfalls can we see?
- Interpretational biases: Parties might interpret data to fit their own narratives.
- External influences: Events like the Lex Tusk bill can rapidly change the political scene, making previous poll data irrelevant.
- Message cohesion challenges: Parties like PO and Third Way struggle with maintaining a unified message due to diverse voter bases.
- Feedback loops: Sometimes, a strategy based on polling data can inadvertently feed back into public sentiment, creating a loop. For instance, when a party acts on polling data suggesting a decline in public support and changes its strategy, this very shift might further affect public sentiment, either mitigating or exacerbating the initial decline.
How marginal parties leverage data
For smaller parties, precision in messaging is paramount. Their objective often zeroes in on niche audiences, either left or right of the centre, based on specific economic or social alignments. While these parties should ideally radiate a core identity, parties like Lewica or Konfederacja sometimes get mired in internal factional debates that can overshadow their central themes.
Konfederacja serves as an illustrative case. Despite its far-right alignment and internal disparities, the party managed to surge in polls by de-emphasising its most extreme views and shifting its messaging. When Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s extreme faction exited the alliance in February, the party experienced an uptick in popularity, putting Krzysztof Bosak in the front line and moving on to other issues where their ideological position was more convenient to voters.
One member of the Lewica party speaking on the condition of anonymity stated that their strategy is to use focus groups to know which parts of the program should be emphasised rather than designing the programme according to them. Demands aren’t abandoned, but an emphasis is put on the wants that the broader public support. No need to kick out those extreme left members from the alliance, as every vote matters when you’re a fringe party – but those need to be kept in check through the central messaging of the party targeting the specific needs of voters.
In this media-saturated age, several media outlets maintain affiliations with political entities. This bond can inadvertently lead to an oversight in addressing certain vital narratives. Wojciech Albert Łobodziński, a seasoned journalist, sheds light on this aspect, cautioning against media bias. Journalists embedded within biassed media entities might inadvertently eclipse pivotal voter concerns, like inflation or lack of social services, as they’re engrossed in the polarised dialogue steered by the parties.
The digital crescendo amplifying the narrative
Duda’s 2020 presidential campaign serves as a compelling testament to a shift from traditional methods towards digital strategies. By producing and disseminating over 2,500 unique advertisements across platforms like Google and Facebook, the campaign was able to accurately pinpoint and target specific regions and demographics. The precision wasn’t just about broadening reach, but about ensuring optimal engagement levels for every penny spent, leading Duda’s campaign to achieve the lowest cost-per-user ratio among all candidates.
And that impressive cost-effectiveness underscores that, when armed with the right strategy, they can outpace and outshine their traditional counterparts. Duda won with a 2.06 percent lead over Rafał Trzaskowski. It’s safe to say that PiS understood the need to commit to enhancing their digital operations, playing a pivotal role in shaping their political campaign this autumn.
Poland’s digital empire at work
A digital empire isn’t just ads, buying radio time, tv spots, or social media posts. It’s about a digital world which shapes narratives, influences opinions, and, in some ways, rewrites the rules of the game. What does that look like?
Scrutinising transparent party expenses unveils an intriguing trend. Parties have funnelled millions into advertising, with a significant chunk dedicated solely to digital campaigns. Take PO for instance – in the 2019 election, according to a report published by the Panoptykon Foundation, they allocated 8.3 percent of their entire campaign budget solely for Facebook targeting.
But it’s not just about the parties. There’s a significant inflow from government PR and marketing spending. Funds are available to promote specific governmental or EU-funded programmes. These budgets, often used strategically, can bolster a party’s narrative or defend against criticisms, as is the case with the recent Polish referendum campaign for the 2023 elections.
Perhaps the most potent tool in the arsenal of the ‘Digital Empire’ is the power of acquisitions. PiS’s strategic acquisition of Polskapresse in 2021 wasn’t just a play for the print media. By gaining control over the largest media group in Poland, they effectively harnessed the digital channels and the invaluable data of millions of readers. The digital realm’s power is not just in broadcasting a message, but in its ability to recirculate and retarget. With modern remarketing tools, users can be ensnared in a web of influence even if they don’t directly engage with these channels.
The real power lies not just in placing ads but in how user data is analysed and leveraged. AI-driven algorithms, equipped to process vast amounts of user data, can offer tailored content, creating a narrative that’s almost personalised to each user. Given the oversight and influence of parties on digital platforms, this means a profound ability to shape public sentiment in nuanced ways.
As Poland gears up for its electoral battles, the fusion of traditional polling insights with the colossal power of the digital realm is setting the stage for political campaigns like never before. The ‘Digital Empire’, with its vast resources and capabilities, promises to play a defining role in shaping the future of Polish politics.
