Following the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa last November after police launched an investigation into alleged corruption around major green investments involving five of his close aides, the centre-right opposition Democratic Alliance (AD) appears to be on course to win a snap election on March 10.
However, it is likely to fall well short of an outright parliamentary majority, even with the support of the small Liberal Initiative party, making it potentially dependent on a resurgent hard right party, Chega!, to govern. Led by former soccer pundit Andre Ventura, Chega! is projected to make the biggest gains, soaring from 7.2 percent in 2020 to around 18 percent of the vote. AD is pulling further ahead of the Socialist Party (PS), led now by Pedro Nunes Santos, in daily opinion polls after a television debate in which AD leader Luis Montenegro was seen as having bested Santos.
Montenegro has said he will not form a coalition or strike a deal with Chega!, raising the prospect of an unstable minority government requiring some minimal confidence-and-supply arrangement either with the far-right party, or perhaps with the Socialists, to survive in office. AD is likely to face strong pressure to negotiate a deal with Chega! after the election despite Montenegro’s refusal.
Costa, who has denied any wrongdoing, remains in office as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.
Key takeaways:
- 2022 election recap: the Socialist Party led by Antonio Costa won an absolute majority of parliamentary seats, enabling it to govern alone without depending on two small leftist parties which had brought his previous minority government down. Costa was the most successful socialist leader in Europe and seen as a potential future President of the European Council until the corruption scandal struck.
- Electoral process: 230 members of the National Assembly are elected by proportional representation from lists of candidates in 12 multi-seat districts. Ten parties had seats in the outgoing parliament, and more than 20 parties are contesting these elections.
- Voter Concerns: Corruption, a housing crisis, low wages and the cost of living, and immigration are seen as the most important issues for Portuguese voters.
- Leading Parties: The outgoing PM’s Socialist Party (PS), which has dominated Portuguese politics for most of the five decades since the 1974 Carnation Revolution toppled a fascist dictatorship, the centre-right Democratic Alliance, dominated by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) of Luis Montenegro, the far-right Chega! led by Andre Ventura, the centrist Liberal Initiative (IL) led by Rui Rocha, the radical Left Bloc (BE), led by Mariana Mortagua.
- Government Formation: With neither major party likely to win a majority of seats even with their natural allies, post election negotiations are likely to be prolonged, with the stability of the next government uncertain.
A left-hearted country contemplates a lurch to the right
Portugal’s electorate naturally leans to the left since Mario Soares’ PS emerged from the 1974 revolution as a social democratic force reconciling strong social welfare policies with the market economy and multi-party democracy. It has alternated in power since the 1979 with the confusingly named Social Democratic Party (PSD), which is actually the main centre-right force.
Portugal’s centre-right has mostly been divided over that period, with the dominant PSD having to form coalitions with the more socially conservative People’s Party (PP).
While a series of hard left, communist and greens parties have survived from the revolution, Portugal long did not have a far-right party due to the stigma attached to the fascist dictatorship that ruled from 1933 until 1974. However, a right-wing populist anti-immigration party, Chega!, was created in 2019 and won one seat in parliament. It received 7.9 percent in 2022 and increased its representation to 12 seats. It is now on course to at least double its vote and seats, possibly emerging as king-maker in the new parliament.
Voter Concerns
Corruption among the political establishment has risen as a major concern since the investigation into Costa’s entourage was announced last year. A previous Socialist Prime Minister, Jose Socrates, was ordered to stand trial for money laundering after leaving office. Chega! has seized on the corruption issue, promising to “clean up Portugal”.
The other main issues are a housing crisis which has been exacerbated by an influx of foreign residents attracted by generous tax breaks and the conversion of an increasing part of the housing stock in Lisbon and other tourist areas for short-term rentals to tourists, forcing up rents for ordinary Portuguese citizens. Portugal has suffered an ongoing brain-drain of your people because of low wages, rising rents and a cost-of-living squeeze. Other pivotal issues dividing the political spectrum include migration, with Chega! demanding a strict clampdown, and the costs associated with fighting climate change.
How a Portuguese government is formed
The process of government formation is a consequence of the country’s semi-presidential system. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD) has a pivotal role in selecting a formateur. Once the president, based on the election results, designates a party to form the government, the party leader becomes prime minister and presents a programme to the assembly. Unless a majority of members of parliament rejects the programme, the government is confirmed in office.
Contenders: who’s who in Portuguese politics
Democratic Alliance (AD)
- Projected: 33-35%
- Previous election: PSD 29.1% PP/CDS 1.6%
- EU affiliation: EPP
- Leading figure: Luis Montenegro
- Trend since November: upward
Socialist Party (PS)
- Projected: 28%
- Previous election: 41.2%
- EU affiliation: S&D
- Leading figure: Pedro Nunes Santos
- Trend since November: downward
Chega!
- Projected: 17-18%
- Previous election: 7.9%
- EU affiliation: ID
- Leading figure: Andre Ventura
- Trend since November: upward
Liberal Initiative (IL)
- Projection: 4-5%
- Previous election: 4.9%
- EU affiliation: ALDE
- Leading figure: Rui Rocha
- Trend since November: downward
Left Bloc (BE)
- Projection: 6%
- Previous election: 4.4%
- EU affiliation: Left
- Leading figure: Mariana Mortagua
- Trend since November: upward
Unitary Democratic Coalition (UDC)
- Projection: 4%
- Previous election; 4.3%
- EU affiliation: Left/Greens EFA
- Leading figure: Paolo Raimundo
- Trend since November: stable
