The political arena is abuzz with anticipation and speculation as Portugal gears up for legislative elections on March 8. This snap election comes after the resignation of Antonio Costa as Prime Minister last year amid a police investigation of potential corruption allegations against him and other senior officials. This scandal prompted all parties to jump-start their campaigns with less than four months before the vote.
The scandal has damaged Costa’s ruling Socialist Party (PS), and prompted Portuguese voters to shift their preferences. In 2022, when the last legislative elections took place, the PS obtained an overwhelming 41 percent of the votes, with the conservative party Social Democratic Party (PSD) a distant second with 29 percent. According to the latest polls, voting intentions have changed dramatically, and the PS is projected to be under 30 percent. This time, the conservative front will be united in a coalition led by the PSD labelled the Democratic Alliance (AD).
The rising force seems to be the national-conservative party, “Chega!” This right-wing party and other sister parties are on the rise across Europe, not just because of their anti-immigration ideology. They are reaping the benefits after years of accusing the main actors in Portuguese politics of corruption. This is not good news for the Liberal Initiative (IL) since Chega! shares some of its pro-market economic positions. While IL denounces Chega!’s populist positions, it is projected to lose some seats.
The last few months have seen a host of leadership changes, with the electorate being more attentive than ever. A bunch of “barcos negros” (literally “black boats”), as the famous fado song about loss and regret says. As the elections approach, let’s delve into the profiles of four prominent parties set to dominate the polls:
Socialist Party (PS)
The PS is one of those parties in Europe that have consistently held a prominent position in their country’s political history. Numerous scandals over the years have not significantly dented its electoral performance. That is no surprise since the Portuguese electorate remains at large heart on the left, with even communist parties, which have long lost support elsewhere in Europe, in the national parliament.
The PS was established by Mario Soares in 1973, in the tumultuous build-up to the Carnation Revolution that toppled a fascist dictatorship the following year. It emerged as the one progressive force advocating for social justice, democratic reforms, and equitable economic policies while accepting the pluralism of parliamentary democracy. Over the decades, voters saw the PS as the main force pushing for the social agenda. That message continued to resonate even after a painful EU/IMF bailout since Costa achieved its best-ever result in 2022.
That historic victory gave the PS an outright majority of parliamentary seats, enabling it to form a government without the need for support from other left-wing parties. Critics say the PS failed to use that majority to implement policy reforms. With new leadership after the scandal, former Infrastructure and Housing Minister Pedro Nunes has taken up the challenge to remain the main social-political force despite the damage to the PS’s reputation from the scandal.
Democratic Alliance (AD)
One of the prominent new political animals, the AD is a coalition comprising several conservative parties. Made up of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the People’s Party (CDS-PP), and the Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), it promises to be a significant force in Portugal’s future, provided it holds together. Similar fronts were created in the past with the same actors, but the scandal led Luis Montenegro, the founder and leader of the platform, to unite all the parties in a drive to end the era of Socialist-led governments. The coalition took its first steps in the Azores region in 2022. The small local election proved that a united centre-right made sense to many voters, even though the platform finished second. The Alliance has not ruled out forming a coalition with the hard right-wing Chega!, which could sweep it to power.
The main force behind the coalition is the PSD, by far the main center-right political party in Portugal. Founded in 1974, the PSD played a pivotal role in shaping the country’s post-revolutionary political landscape and has remained the core voice for economic liberalism, social conservatism, and European integration. The PSD has traditionally attracted support from business interests and middle-class voters. Yet its conservative policies look very social compared to most European nations.
The fragile partner in the coalition is the People’s Party (CDS-PP), formerly known as the Democratic and Social Centre – People’s Party (CDS-PP). This is a socially conservative party rooted in Christian democratic principles, including the protection of traditional family values, the defense of human life, and the promotion of social solidarity. In the 2022 elections, the People’s Party lost all its seats in parliament for the first time in Portuguese democratic history. This put it in a weak bargaining position when the AD was established. Their previous partner, the Monarchist Popular Party (PPM), was in a similar position, having been out of the parliament since 2009. While the coalition was forming, the PPM questioned Montenegro’s leadership, calling him weak — a bold statement for a party that got 260 votes in 2022. The last time they got in parliament was precisely because they were in a similar coalition to today’s.
Chega!
Due to the much-hyped coverage of the far right’s rise in Europe, one party has captured the attention of media and voters alike in this election: Chega! This right-wing populist party, led by André Ventura, has emerged as a disruptive force, challenging the status quo and reshaping the contours of Portuguese politics. Ventura, a former PSD member, founded Chega!, which translates to “Enough!” in English, in 2019.
The party espouses nationalist sentiments, anti-establishment rhetoric, and a tough-on-crime stance. It has garnered significant support among disillusioned voters who feel marginalised by the mainstream parties and disillusioned with the political elite. Chega! articulates a nationalist and populist agenda, emphasising the primacy of Portuguese identity, culture, and sovereignty. It advocates for stricter immigration controls, harsher penalties for criminals, and a crackdown on corruption within the political establishment. Chega! aims to outbid the alliance on traditional family values and identity.
In the 2022 legislative elections, Chega! experienced a surge in support, capitalising on widespread discontent with the left-wing government’s handling of issues such as crime, immigration, and economic stagnation. Despite its relatively short existence, the party vaulted into third place with 7.2 percent of the vote, positioning itself as a significant player in Portuguese politics. Chega! – is now at a crucial juncture, poised to capitalise on its momentum and expand its influence further. Opinion polls give it between 18 and 20 percent of the vote, making it a potential kingmaker. The party has outlined a comprehensive political programme to address its supporters’ concerns and aspirations. It seeks to implement stricter immigration controls and overhaul Portugal’s asylum and refugee policies, prioritising the interests of Portuguese citizens and safeguarding national security.
Capitalising on the scandals, Chega! vows to combat corruption and cronyism within the political establishment, advocating for greater transparency, accountability, and integrity in public office. It also supports electoral reform to enhance representation and empower citizens. Years of harsh criticism of the elite may pay off to increase its seats and potentially give it a role in a coalition with the Alliance.
Liberal Initiative (IL)
Liberal Initiative is the other new player in Portuguese politics. A classical liberal party founded in 2017, it offers an alternative to traditional left-right politics with a focus on individual freedoms, limited government intervention, and free-market policies.
IL emerged as a response to what its founders perceived as a lack of genuine liberal representation in Portuguese politics. The party’s elected parliamentarians have mainly focused on questions of institutional transparency. IL positions itself as the leading critic of systemic corruption within the political establishment, advocating for greater transparency, accountability, and integrity for public officeholders. It has proposed strengthening anti-corruption laws, enhancing oversight mechanisms, and prosecuting those found guilty of malfeasance.
In the 2022 elections, IL made significant strides, winning 4.9 percent of the vote, capitalising on growing disillusionment with traditional political parties and a desire for change. While its representation in parliament remained modest, IL’s performance exceeded expectations. The challenge now is to remain the main critic of corruption with Chega! and the Alliance rising on the issue.
From the centre-left pragmatism of PS to the right-wing populism of Chega!, voters face many choices that reflect the complexity of Portugal’s socio-political dynamics. As the campaign climaxes, the outcome will not only shape the composition of the next government but also define the trajectory of Portuguese politics in the years to come. Stay tuned as we will get to reflect on the many lessons from this fascinating election.
