As the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections draw near, one of the more controversial parties vying to increase its influence is the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, a coalition of nationalist, right-wing populist and Eurosceptic parties that champion the sovereignty and cultural heritage of European nations. Established in the wake of rising nationalist sentiments across the continent, ID stands as a testament to the growing backlash against mainstream EU governance. This group, with its robust anti-immigration agenda and controversial positions on issues such as the place of Islam in European societies, is poised to play an enlarged role in shaping the discussions and policies that will define Europe’s future.
The power players: who’s who in Identity and Democracy
ID unites a formidable alliance of nationalist and Eurosceptic parties that advocate for the sovereignty of individual European nations, positioning themselves as bulwarks against what they perceive as excessive control by EU institutions. Central to ID’s influence are prominent figures like Marine Le Pen of France’s National Rally, Matteo Salvini of Italy’s League and Geert Wilders of the Dutch Freedom Party, who leverage their high-profile standings to vocally oppose a range of EU policies. These leaders not only shape ID’s agenda but also embody the group’s public face, often igniting contentious debates within the European political spectrum.
Marco Zanni, as the chairman of ID, orchestrates the coalition’s strategic directions and manages the often-competing interests of its members. His role is crucial in maintaining cohesion among parties that, while united under the ID banner, may diverge significantly in their local political contexts and priorities. For example, some ID affiliates advocate leaving the EU, while others seek to transform it from within into a much looser Europe of nations. This complexity presents a challenge for ID, as it seeks to present a united front in the European Parliament while accommodating the nuanced and sometimes conflicting nationalist agendas of its members.
The effectiveness of Zanni’s leadership is therefore pivotal, not only in steering ID’s legislative efforts but also in navigating the internal dynamics that could potentially fragment the group’s collective influence. These dynamics underline the critical balancing act faced by ID’s leadership: to harness the strengths of their prominent figures without letting their individual nationalistic ambitions overshadow the group’s collective goals on the European stage.
Key contributors and internal dynamics
ID’s unity is underpinned by a collective endorsement of nationalist and protectionist ideologies, which manifest prominently in their policies aimed at fortifying European borders, halting immigration, and reinforcing national identities. These issues form the cornerstone of ID’s agenda, providing a common rallying point for its diverse membership, which spans various shades of right-wing populism. This ideological alignment helps ID project a united stance on several key European issues, aligning their policy objectives across different national contexts.
However, the group’s internal cohesion is periodically tested by diverse domestic politics. Recent divergences in opinion, such as the varied responses to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, expose the fractures within ID. For instance, while the group publicly supports Ukraine and condemns Russian aggression, individual party responses have varied, reflecting differing national interests and foreign policy priorities. Many ID affiliates were close to Moscow before the full-scale invasion and are accused of having received funding or other support, though some have since distanced themselves.
Moreover, the departure of the Finns Party, driven by its new stance in support of NATO membership, underscores the challenges ID faces in adapting its collective agenda to the evolving political ideologies of its member parties. Such shifts not only challenge ID’s internal unity but also raise questions about its ability to maintain a coherent and effective group identity in the European Parliament. This tension between national prerogatives and joint policy goals illustrates the complex, often precarious nature of political alliances within the EU, particularly those built around broad, ideologically driven objectives.
Voter base insights
ID resonates strongly with a segment of the electorate that perceives themselves as marginalised by the forces of globalisation and the policies of the European Union. This voter base primarily consists of older, conservative demographics who prioritise cultural homogeneity and express significant concerns about immigration and national security. It includes a segment of disenchanted working class voters, who may previously have voted for the left, as well as frustrated young white males. These concerns are not only rooted in a desire to preserve traditional values but also stem from anxieties about the perceived dilution of national identity and the increasing influence of foreign elements on their way of life.
Moreover, ID’s appeal extends to those who feel economically sidelined by the prevailing political and economic systems, which they believe favour the urban elites at the expense of provincial and rural communities. This includes farmers, rural workers, and small-town residents who face economic disparities and a lack of services that are more readily available in larger cities. ID taps into these grievances by promoting policies that ostensibly aim to correct these inequities, advocating for greater attention to and investment in rural areas and a priority for nationals over migrants in employment, housing and welfare.
This approach not only critiques the current economic policies but also positions ID as a champion of the ‘forgotten’ citizens, promising to restore their voice and agency in European politics. This strategic alignment with the concerns of economically disadvantaged and culturally conservative voters helps ID to mobilise a substantial and dedicated voter base, eager for change that reflects their interests and values.
Election forecast
As nationalist sentiments continue to escalate across Europe, ID finds itself at a potential inflection point for increasing its influence in the upcoming EP elections. The rising tide of nationalism, fueled by economic uncertainties and cultural anxieties, aligns well with ID’s core messages, which could broaden their appeal. Recent polls indicate that ID is poised to gain an additional 19 seats, reflecting a significant uptick in support that underscores the group’s resonating message amidst the prevailing political climate. It is expected to make gains in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, but to lose seats to rival rightists in Italy.
However, the ultimate success of ID will depend heavily on several factors, including voter turnout and the broader political environment at the time of elections. Their staunch anti-EU and anti-immigration stance may find particular resonance in regions grappling with significant economic challenges or where there is a palpable fear of cultural dilution and loss of national identity. As these factors play out, ID’s ability to capitalise on this momentum and translate it into electoral gains will be crucial in determining their future role and influence within the EP.
The post-victory wishlist
Should ID secure a substantial number of seats in the European Parliament, the group aims to leverage its power to push for stricter immigration controls, the rollback of EU centralization, and the preservation of cultural heritage. A significant victory would embolden ID to seek key positions within parliamentary committees that oversee security, immigration, and cultural affairs, aligning legislative initiatives with their nationalist and sovereigntist agenda.
As the EP elections approach, understanding the strategic positioning, ideological orientation, and voter base of ID is crucial for gauging the potential shifts in the European political landscape, and what that might mean for the future of the EU.
