Since the 2019 European Parliament (EP) elections, Romania has faced transformative geopolitical shifts. Now adjacent to a war-torn Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion, Romania’s strategic importance to Europe and NATO has dramatically increased. As the country with the sixth largest share of MEPs, how Romanians vote in the upcoming EP elections matters. The question is how these changes will impact the election results come June.
This article explores Romania’s evolving political position, the key political players in the country, and its implications for the upcoming EP elections, offering actionable insights for political professionals.
Romania’s geopolitical shifts post-2019 Elections
Romania’s geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly in three critical areas: its proximity to a war-torn Ukraine, its accession to the Schengen zone, and the rise of far-right political actors in mainstream politics.
The security question
Since the last EP elections, Romania now neighbours a country at war, placing it in an important geopolitical position for Europe and NATO. It also elevates stress about the county’s preparedness for war. In February of this year, Romania’s chief of defence, Gheorghiță Vlad, warned that the population should be concerned about a future in which military tensions are heightened throughout the Western Balkans. More recently, debris from a drone was found on Romanian territory near its border with Ukraine, highlighting the proximity of Russia’s military invasion.
Accession to the Schengen zone
As of March 31, Romania has joined Europe’s ‘border-free’ Schengen Zone, making it possible to travel from the country to 29 other European countries without ID checks — at least by air and sea. Ground border control remains in place, due to a veto by Austria, which is concerned about higher numbers of asylum seekers travelling into Europe.
The rise of the far-right
With the country backsliding on judicial independence and press freedom, Romania is also dealing with a growing far-right with the recent establishment of populist parties with ties to Russia. This has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic where anti-vaccine and anti-lockdown rhetoric of AUR, the main far right party, collided with people’s fears about vaccination and frustrations with government restrictions and the party’s support swelled.
Since its founding in 2019, the party has focused on Romanians’ frustrations with the high cost-of-living and more recently the war in Ukraine. It has also capitalised on the unpopularity of EU climate policies. Mirroring trends with nationalist parties in other countries, AUR has particularly strong support among the Romanian diaspora, gaining 20 percent of this demographic’s votes in the last national election.
If AUR gains around 20 percent of the votes in the EP election, as a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, it would throw their support behind Eurosceptic policies and aim to undermine many EU measures, especially those meant to combat climate change.
Breakdown of key political parties
Current election trends for Romania show five parties above the 5 percent threshold to enter the national parliament. The PES-affiliated Social Democratic Party (PSD), the EPP-affiliated National Liberal Party (PNL), the ECR-affiliated Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), the Renew-affiliated Save Romania Union (USR) and the ID-affiliated S.O.S. Romania Party (S.O.S).
The centre-left Social Democratic Party is currently the largest political force in Romania and has been one of the two largest parties since its founding in the 1990s. However, it is the second largest Romanian party in the outgoing EU Parliament after PNL. The party has a mix of socially conservative positions and centre-left and neoliberal economic policies. It has been described as a catch-all party due to its varying ideological positions on different issues.
The centre-right PNL party traces its roots back to 1875 but was re-founded in 1990, following the fall of the dictatorship in Romania. It is a strongly established party in the country and one of the largest with a conservative-liberal ideology, pro-European stance, and neoliberal prescriptions like the privatisation of the economy.
The far-right populist AUR party has called for the unification of ethnic Romanians, both from within the country and in neighbouring regions with high numbers of ethnic Romanians. It has advocated for the unification of Moldova and Romania. It has been accused of being anti-Hungarian, antisemitic, and neo-fascist, but party figures have denied these claims. Their platform’s four main pillars are listed as “family, nation, Christian faith, and liberty.”
The liberal USR party was founded in 2016, after the success of the Save Bucharest Union party in the 2016 local elections in Bucharest. The party originally ran on an anti-corruption platform and advocated for government transparency in Romania. It is a strong supporter of Romania’s membership in the EU and NATO.
S.O.S. Romania is a new party, founded in 2021, and is a nationalist, conservative party with Eurosceptic positions. It has been accused of having ties with the Kremlin and has advocated for Romania’s withdrawal from the EU and is critical of NATO. Along with AUR, the party is seen as a major channel for Russian influence in Romania.
EP elections: past & present
In the 2019 EP elections, Romanians elected 14 MEPs associated with the EPP, constituting the largest share of the country’s 33 seats in the European Parliament. This was followed by MEPs associated with the S&D Group with nine seats and the Renew Europe Europe group with seven. ECR and Greens/EFA affiliated MEPs each held one of Romania’s 33 seats.
The current outlook for the EP election in Romania appears a bit different. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) is polling at 30.6 percent, followed by the centre-right PNL at 19.7 percent. Worryingly, the far-right AUR is almost level with PNL on 19.1 percent. The liberal USR is hovering around 13 percent. Another far-right party, S.O.S. Romania, which belongs to the ID faction in the EU Parliament, is currently at 6 percent. Importantly, this means that the two largest far-right parties are polling with a combined vote share of around 25 percent, a concerningly high level.
National elections: past & present
In the last two general elections, in 2016 and 2020, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) came out on top, capturing 49.3 percent and 33.3 percent of the seats. Most recent polls show the PDS at 30 percent and likely to come out on top once again.
The social-conservative PNL is tied for second place at 19 percent, a dip from the 25.2 percent they had in 2020. The liberal USR, was the third largest party in parliament in 2016 and 2020. The far-right AUR is polling much higher than their 2020 results, jumping from around 9 percent to nearly 20 percent. The other significant far-right party, S.O.S. Romania is at 5.2 percent.
What to expect
In the last EP elections, Romanian voter turnout stood at 51.2 percent, much improved since its first EP election in 2007 when only 29.2 percent of eligible Romanians turned out. In 2009 turnout stood at 26.6 percent and in 2014 32.44 percent. What caused the big jump in 2019? In part, voter turnout has been boosted by political turmoil, which has led to a more engaged electorate and protests against governmental actions and policies.
Since the last EU elections, there has been turmoil in Romanian politics, particularly in 2021 with a political crisis in the governing coalition. More recently, in early 2024, there were farmer’s protests which the far-right attempted to use to their advantage. We can expect Romanian voter turnout to remain high in this year’s EU elections, especially with an activated far-right, a motivating force for those in support of it and those opposed to it.
If the polls are right and a high number of far-right MEPs from Romania enter the European Parliament, support for radical positions in the EP will rise and Euroscepticism in the centre of European politics will be bolstered.
