Although Lithuania is one of the smaller EU member states, with only 11 seats in the European Parliament, in recent years the country’s geopolitical importance within the Union has significantly increased. As a nation sharing a border with Russian territory, as well as a long border with the deeply Russia-aligned Belarus, there has been growing concern about regional stability and security since Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Despite this, Lithuania has been a key supporter of Ukraine and vocal critic of the Russian government. The country is one of few in the EU expected to swing towards the centre-left in this year’s European Parliament (EP) elections, a shift from the country’s 2019 EP election results. The outcome will also be an indicator of what can be expected when the country holds national parliamentary elections this Fall. In this overview, we examine the standing of the main Lithuanian political parties and discuss the most salient developments in the Lithuanian political environment that will influence the results of the June 9th elections.
Lithuania’s political and social dynamics since 2019
Lithuania has experienced significant transformations since the 2019 EP elections, influencing its current approach to European and internal politics. Crucial factors that will impact the upcoming elections include the country’s increasing security concerns around the Russia-Ukraine war, which have bolstered desire for EU expansion and integration and have strengthened the country’s push towards energy independence. Additionally, a weakened economy following the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation, and high energy prices will influence voters when they cast their votes in June.
Value-led foreign policy
Lithuania has followed what the government calls a “values-led” approach to foreign policy. Where this is most visible is in its unwavering support for Ukraine. The country announced a 200 million euro aid package for Ukraine earlier this year. Lithuania has also supported Ukraine’s ambition to join the European Union. However, as one of Ukraine’s strongest financial and political supporters, there are concerns about retaliation from Moscow. The Lithuanian minister for Culture, Simonas Kairys—along with officials from neighbouring Latvia and Estonia—has been put on a wanted list by Moscow.
Lithuania’s values-led foreign policy has also led to the establishment of a de facto Taiwanese embassy in the capital city of Vilnius last year. Signalling a high degree of support for Taiwan’s independence from China. This move means the small country of under three million has had to face backlash from China and suffer the economic consequences. China banned imports from Lithuania and trade between the two countries fell from 350 million euros to 100 million euros. The Lithuanian government has argued that, in the long-term, the move will help the country economically by spurring Taiwanese investment. But Lithuanians have yet to see the promised economic benefits of Taiwanese investments.
Critics have argued that this decision to make a bold show of support for Taiwanese independence was not about values-led foreign policy, but actually based on the ruling party, Homeland Union, having received monetary support and investment from Taiwan, which then influenced their foreign policy.
Economic hardship
In addition to the impact from China’s retaliation, Lithuania’s economy, like other EU countries, had already taken a hit from the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Interestingly, whereas many other EU countries have seen huge leaps in support for far-right parties, Lithuanian voters have not swung to the right in reaction to the country’s economic challenges. In the upcoming EP election, it is the centre-left that can expect the most significant gains in support.
Key political actors and their outlook
Centre-left predicted to make large gains
The centre-left, S&D affiliated Social Democratic Party (LSDP) received 15.9 percent of the vote in the 2019 European elections and sent two MEPs to Brussels. The next year, the party performed poorly in the parliamentary elections, receiving just over nine percent of the vote. However, the last four years in opposition seems to have benefitted the LSDP as recent polls show the party in the lead, with 24 percent support. That puts them more than ten points ahead of Homeland Union, which is currently polling the second highest.
Centre-right on the decline since 2019 and 2020 wins
In the 2019 EP elections, the largest share of voters—19.7 percent—went to the centre-right, EPP affiliated Homeland Union (LKD). This led to the party obtaining three of the country’s 11 seats in the EP. The same year, Lithuania held presidential elections. Homeland Union’s candidate, Ingrida Šimonyte lost to an independent, Gitanas Nausėda. The following year, 2020, parliamentary elections took place, which saw Homeland Union win the largest share of seats and Šimonyte became the Prime Minister. Since then, the party has been in coalition with two small liberal parties: the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party. Homeland Union has lost support since taking power, however, with voting intention polls placing the party around 13 percent.
Stable support for the Greens, despite splinter party founding
The Greens/EFA affiliated Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVŽS) also had a relatively successful result in the 2019 EP elections, finishing with 12.6 percent of the vote and two seats in the European Parliament. Much like in 2019, the party is predicted to receive around 12 percent of the vote in the upcoming EP elections.
In 2022, the EGP affiliated Union of Democrats – For Lithuania (DSVL) was founded by Sallie’s Skvernelis, the previous Lithuanian PM. Skvernelis was supported by the Farmers and Greens Union and had previously been elected to the Lithuanian Parliament on the Farmers and Greens list. However, after the Farmers and Greens Union lost the 2020 parliamentary elections, Skvernelis and the party’s chairman had disagreements. In Autumn 2021, Skvernelis, along with other LVŽS members, left the party and formed the Democrats – For Lithuania group in the parliament. The party currently holds 16 seats in parliament and recent polls place the party in fourth place, after the Farmers and Greens, with ten percent support.
Three small centrist parties
Lithuania has three RE affiliated parties: Liberal Movement (LRLS), Freedom Party (LP), and Labour Party (DP). The former, LRLS, is a conservative liberal party that has previously suffered from a corruption scandal. However, after winning seven percent of the vote in the 2020 Lithuanian parliamentary elections, the party later joined a coalition with Homeland Union and Freedom Party and has since been in government. The previous year, Liberal Movement gained 6.6 percent of the vote in EP elections, resulting in the party having one MEP. Currently the party is polling around nine percent.
Despite being newly founded in 2019, growing out of Remigijus Šimašius’ successful run for Vilnius mayor, Freedom Party was successful in the 2020 parliamentary elections. It obtained 11 of the 141 seats in the Lithuania Parliament and became a member of the ruling coalition. Being founded in 2019, the party did not campaign for the last EP elections. However, this year they are polling around six percent, making it possible that they will have a seat in Brussels.
The centrist and populist RE affiliated Labour Party (DP), founded by the Russian-born millionaire Viktor Uspaskich, obtained 9 percent of the vote in the last European elections, which translated to one seat in the EP. Recent polls show the party’s popularity has declined with voting intention polls from last month placing the party around 5 percent which would take away their sole seat in June.
Polish minority likely to lose EP representation
A small polish minority party, affiliated with ECR, called Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance (EAPL-FCA) also currently holds a seat in the European Parliament, after receiving 5.5 percent of the vote in the last European Elections. However, the party may lose its one EP seat after the June elections, with recent polls placing support for the party around two percent.
What to expect
The upcoming EP elections are expected to solidify Lithuania’s role as a pro-EU nation with a likely increase for the centre-left Social Democrats. This outcome will not only impact Lithuania’s domestic policies but also its stance and influence within the European Parliament, especially in relation to security, migration, and economic policies. Despite only having few seats in the EP, Lithuania’s elections offer insights into an interesting political dynamic within the EU, one that can arise in the face of heightened geopolitical tensions.
