Disinformation tactics and tech in Belarusian elections

Belarus is gearing up for parliamentary elections on February 25. After the disputed outcome of the last presidential poll, widely regarded as rigged in favour of the country’s autocratic leader, Alexandr Lukashenko, massive protests in Minsk and around the country continued for months. This round has been denounced as “an election without choice”, with the democratic opposition boycotting the ballot and the OSCE being barred from sending observers. Yet it may serve as a bellwether of the contest in cyberspace between the dictatorial regime and (mostly exiled) democratic opposition forces. 

In such a context, disinformation, often presented in the guise of propaganda, plays a pivotal role in legitimising a questionable regime. This article delves into the strategies employed by autocratic regimes, exploring how they deploy disinformation and harness technology in their political propaganda. A particular focus is placed on scrutinising various misleading claims disseminated by the Belarusian state news agency (BELTA). The aim is to gauge the true sentiments of the Belarusian population rather than the predictable outcome of this year’s election, which is widely perceived as a political farce.

“80 percent of Belarusian people are satisfied with their lives”

Belarus stands out as a self-proclaimed autocracy, and one that has proven remarkably resilient. Unlike his primary ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko doesn’t shy away from the dictator label, openly acknowledging the country as an autocracy under his rule.

This underscores the unreliability of government-backed statistics. Autocratic regimes often use bogus social studies to construct a narrative devoid of problems, promoting an image of a government that consistently performs well, leaving little room for critique.

Belarusian democratic forces in exile have sought to counter this statistical disinformation with their own surveys. According to the latest opinion poll conducted for UK think-tank Chatham House, only a minority of the Belarusian population support Russia’s use of Belarus as a base for military action against Ukraine, even though Lukashenko has been a staunch ally of Putin’s invasion. The pollster acknowledged that the fear factor played an important role in assessing the true numbers since many of those surveyed were scared to express an opinion critical of the government.

“Belarus’ exports at record high in 2023”

In the playbook of autocracies, state-owned media serve as their primary information channels, using them as a platform for praising and whitewashing their actions. It’s not just about propaganda and misinformation; censorship also looms as a significant challenge. In Lukashenko’s world, there are no adversaries; because everything works just perfectly fine. Exports may indeed be at a record high, because of high global potash prices, but even if true, the boastful statistic is meaningless in assessing the country’s economic situation.

“Social Research Data: 76.6 percent of Belarusians do not trust the opposition” 

In a country where independent parliamentary election polling is prohibited and opposition is stifled, unravelling the true political sentiment of the population becomes an elusive task. Yet, recent demonstrations have offered a glimpse. In response, Lukashenko opted for an extensive crackdown on the protesters, thousands of whom were jailed, and some tortured.

The purported data is presented with comical precision, to the nearest decimal point. Why 76.6 percent and not 76.5 or 76.7?

The statistic could ironically hold, considering the absence of any opposition forces allowed to operate in the country. For years, Lukashenko has quashed political opponents and journalists, many of whom now work from abroad, striving to establish independent organisations to counter the disinformation campaigns orchestrated by the government.

 “Belarus is one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world”

The Belarusian Investigative Center has recently exposed a fabricated statement by Alexei Dzermant – a pro-government political analyst and philosopher, aired on a national TV outlet, in which he asserted that the country stands as an example of technological modernisation. The reality differs significantly. Belarus ranks below the Global Innovation Index average,  and is notably low in the internet freedom index due to the censorship of websites. Major international tech companies, including recently Tinder, have halted commercial operations in the country, raising concerns about the violation of user rights and government influence in the online sphere.

Moreover, according to U.S. cybersecurity research firm Mandiant, the UNC1151 hacker group has ties to the Belarusian government. Operating under the Ghostwriter campaign, the group employs phishing methods targeting individuals critical of Lukashenko’s regime, including dissidents, media organisations and journalists. The aim is to disseminate fabricated articles under the names of these persons, particularly ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. Several of those targeted individuals were later arrested.

In alignment with the traditional rhetoric of Russian and Belarusian propaganda, the articles propagated by the group advanced narratives critical of the US, NATO and the EU. Not confined to Belarus, Mandiant uncovered that the group released articles in multiple languages, including Polish, Latvian and English, aimed at generating political disruption in neighbouring countries. Many of UNC1151’s government targets have been ministries of defence, suggesting a strong military intelligence-gathering focus for the group. Additionally, the hacker group expanded its credential theft activities to target German politicians in the lead-up to the 2021 German federal election. However, the true impact of the disinformation campaign remains unknown.

“Support for the President, the government and security officials is growing”

Another meaningless, unsubstantiated claim which, even if it were true, does not give any detail to judge whether support has increased from 15 to 17 percent or from the 80 percent officially attributed to Lukashenko in the flawed presidential election to a still higher level.

This underscores that Lukashenko’s personality cult and regime are not unshakeable; rather, they reveal vulnerabilities, fostering a heightened awareness among Belarusians who are less easily swayed by political propaganda.

Is there still hope?

Fissures within Lukashenko’s system are evident, with many in the population expressing a fundamental desire for political and economic change. Continuous anti-government protests are not only indicative of shifting public perceptions but also reveal potential areas of dissent.

The concept of neutrality holds a prominent place among the core values of the Belarusian nation, explicitly enshrined in the country’s inaugural constitution in 1994. Stanislav Shushkevich, Belarus’s first head of state post the USSR’s dissolution, asserted that “NATO and Russia will never be joined.”

As a territory long subjected to German and Russian occupations, Belarus aspired to be a neutral ground amid conflicts between East and West. However, under Lukashenko’s leadership, the country embraced the Soviet narrative, transforming it into a puppet regime of Russia, with both entities mutually supporting each other.

The Belarusian opposition not only advocates for democracy but also emphasises the country’s values of independence and neutrality. Aligned increasingly with the Russian narrative, especially amid the escalating conflict in Ukraine, Kamil Kłysiński, a researcher from Polish-based think-thank, Centre for Eastern Studies, assesses potential scenarios for a political crisis in Belarus. He suggests that if a political shift occurs in Russia, with a departure from Putinism, the opposition might have a solid chance of seizing power. 

However, as long as the current leaders remain in power, they are likely to fortify and sustain each other’s repressive regimes, behind a facade of sham elections.