How has Bulgaria become trapped in an endless election cycle? Why are parties failing to win a clear majority? And what could we learn from the last election campaign?
On April 2nd, Bulgarians held a parliamentary election for a fifth time in two years in the hope of finally having a stable government that will address the country’s mounting economic, social, and political issues. While the result unfortunately does not suggest that government formation will be an easy task in the 49th National Assembly, plenty of lessons can be learned from this situation.
Who has won the election?
As none of the parties is able to build a majority that would allow them to fulfil their campaign promises, it is difficult to proclaim a winner in this election.
Neither of the two largest political powers, GERB and the coalition PP-DB (We continue the change — Democratic Bulgaria), will be able to form a government by itself or even in a coalition with one of the smaller parties. Unless they form a coalition between themselves — which would require an almost existential compromise -they will need at least two other parties to achieve a majority. This is a deja vu from the last election, which proved to be unable to produce a stable government.
Some say the far-right party Revival (Vazrazhdane), which has managed to come third and increase its support, is the winner of this election. But their goal is to govern by themselves and revise Bulgaria’s membership in the EU and NATO. Aside from being an impossible coalition partner for the other, predominantly pro-European parties in parliament, they remain far from their goal to change the geopolitical orientation of the country.
Others want to emphasise this election’s surprise — the populist party ITN (There is such a people) that managed to pass the threshold and gain seats in parliament after not being represented in the last national assembly. However, their story from being the party that won first place in the election on 11 July 2021 to a party barely passing the parliamentary threshold does not suggest a victory either.
Who voted?
The voter turnout in the last six parliamentary elections has been declining in comparison to the regular 4-year cycle of elections. Although the frequent elections offer an explanation for the low voter turnout, the percentage of Bulgarians who continuously do not vote has stagnated at around 60%. This should be a reason for concern for all parties, who must come to realise that something about their approach is not working.
- 26.03.2017–54.07% — 3 682 151 voted out of 6 810 34 total number of voters
- 04.04.2021–50.61% — 3 334 283 voted out of 6 588 372 total number of voters
- 11.07.2021–42.19% — 2 775 410 voted out of 6 578 716 total number of voters
- 14.11.2021–40.50% — 2 687 307 voted out of 6 635 305 total number of voters
- 02.10.2022–39.41% — 2 601 963 voted out of 6 602 990 total number of voters
- 02.04.2023–40.63% — 2 679 234 voted out of 6 594 593 total number of voters
I don’t support anyone
Currently, the Bulgarian electoral system allows the possibility to vote with “I don’t support anyone”. If “I don’t support anyone” were a political party, it would be represented in parliament: its support is steadily above the 4% threshold and rising. On April 2nd, 108 667 voters clearly expressed their lack of support for any of the political parties. This result illustrates the population’s growing discontent with the political class.
- 04.04.2021–1,43% — 47 749 voted with “I don’t support anyone” out of 3 334 283 voters
- 11.07.2021–1.26% — 35 201 voted with “I don’t support anyone” out of 2 775 410 voters
- 14.11.2021–1.33% 35 745 voted with “I don’t support anyone” out of 2 687 307 voters
- 02.10.2022–3.36% — 87 635 voted with “I don’t support anyone” out of 2 601 963 voters
- 02.04.2023–4.06% — 108 842 voted with “I don’t support anyone” out of 2 679 234 voters
Lines of division in the political campaign and positioning of the parties
Bulgarian society is highly polarised on a number of issues. Political parties have been nurturing these divisions by hardening their red lines during the campaign. On one side, there are ideological differences that cannot be a subject of compromise without threatening the very existence of parties. On the other side, people are becoming increasingly alienated from the political agenda of parties, which often do not even address the citizen’s main concerns.
We can see at least two divisive lines in the last campaign that provoke a strong reaction in Bulgarian society.
First, the geopolitical orientation of the country is no longer a given. There are parties with strong pro-European and pro-NATO agendas that aim for Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone and Schengen, support Ukraine with all possible means in the war with Russia, and commit to working for Bulgaria’s European future. One of the main messages of the coalition PP-DB (We continue the change — Democratic Bulgaria) was exactly that: “I voted for a normal European life. I voted to have a normal European government, normal European roads, normal European healthcare, normal European education”, shared one of the leaders of the coalition Kiril Petkov on social media during the election day.
On the other hand, the third political power in this election, Vazrazhdane (Revival) is questioning to what extent Bulgaria belongs to the Euro-Atlantic community and is willing to revise EU and NATO memberships. They strongly campaigned against Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone and have been gathering signatures for a referendum on the matter.
Second, corruption is at the centre of discord. The largest two political powers do not have big ideological differences. Still, there is one issue that puts them at two opposite ends — the fight against corruption, including a judiciary reform that ensures control of the chief prosecutor.
While PP-DB (We continue the change — Democratic Bulgaria) is prioritising reforms to eliminate the role of the chief prosecutor as a centre of power, the efforts of other parties in this regard are not that diligent.
The mass protests in 2020 that brought Boyko Borissov’s GERB party down after nearly 12 years in power were all about corruption. The so-called “model GERB” against which the new reformist parties are fighting is what has prevented a broad coalition so far.
Even the very means of voting managed to gain pro- and anti-camps in the last parliament, which is another expression of the fight against corruption and vote-buying.
How parties approached the campaign
The election campaign does not stand out with a particular success or failure story. Parties did their best to gain supporters despite the limited resources and the accumulated election fatigue in both voters and politicians.
In the spirit of overcoming division, two parties with close pro-European views decided to join forces in the hope of coming out first and dictating the rules for a future government. Unfortunately, this union led to a decline in the support for PP (We continue the change) and DB (Democratic Bulgaria), with the sum of their results as separate players in the previous election being higher than their current support.
Despite only making second place, the coalition PP-DB (We continue the change — Democratic Bulgaria) held perhaps their most active campaign so far, betting on positive messaging and a strong presence on all levels — social media, online ads, outdoor ads, media interviews, 3D mapping, concerts, on-site activities and meetings with voters throughout the country.
In comparison, the campaign of their main opponent GERB seemed uninspired and predictable. They were focused on criticising the last PP (We continue the change) government and presenting themselves as the only possibility for stability. As had traditionally been the case, party leader Boyko Borissov was the highlight of the campaign with his speeches in conversational Bulgarian offering life wisdom:
“If many gather to beat one, then they are weaker, this is the life experience, this is the experience from the street, from life, from the gym. Those who only 1–2 years ago thought they were the messiah who would save Bulgaria, they pushed it to the bottom”, said Borisov.
The slogans used in the campaign also reveal the tiredness and lack of originality that plagues the political landscape after five elections in a row:
“For stable Bulgaria again” — GERB
“There is a way” — PP-DB (We continue the change — Democratic Bulgaria)
“Reason, responsibility, dialogue!” — DPS (Movement for rights and freedom)
“Choose freedom!” — Vazrazhdane (Revival)
“Yes! We can” — BSP
If parties manage to draw the right conclusions from their results, they need to adjust their list of priorities to match those of their citizens and focus their efforts on engaging the dormant 60% of Bulgarians who are indifferent to the political life in the country.
So far, Kostadin Kostadinov, the leader of Vazrazhdane (Revival), is the only one whose first comment on the election results was focused on this issue: “The low voter turnout is a grave sentence for Bulgarian democracy because 2/3 of the voters are not interested in the future of Bulgaria”, said Kostadinov to BNR.
See you soon at the next election
Many saw the current election as preparation for the local elections in the fall, which could be the key to a possibly stable government by decisively stabilising party support.
Whatever happens in the 49th National Assembly, we will only have the final answer to Bulgaria’s future direction after the fall elections.
