Bulgaria’s recent local elections on 29 October led to a series of runoffs on 5 November in large and small cities, including the capital, Sofia, and the second and third largest cities, Plovdiv and Varna. In a political landscape marked by frequent elections in the past two years and increasing fragmentation, these six key takeaways from the local ballots highlight the complexities and challenges facing political parties within Bulgaria’s divided society.
Ambiguous support from non-runoff parties confused their voters
One prominent issue during these local elections was the lack of clear division lines between political parties, which often left voters bewildered.
This was evident in the runoff in Sofia, where Boyko Borisov, the leader of GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria), found himself wavering in his support. While it may have appeared logical for Borisov to endorse Vasil Terziev, the candidate backed by PP-DB (We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria) and Spasi Sofia (Save Sofia), his stance was far from straightforward. Borisov initially expressed an indirect preference for Vania Grigorova, supported by BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party), Levitsata (The Left) and other smaller pro-Russian parties, before changing his mind, saying it was a joke, and endorsing Terziev.
This flip-flop resulted in GERB supporters splitting their votes between the two candidates, casting doubt on the seemingly clear-cut outcome for Sofia. The difference between the two candidates in Sofia is 1.3 percent or 4786 votes, with 48.2 percent for Vasil Terziev and 46.9 percent for Vania Grigorova. Just for comparison, 4.9 percent voted with “I do not support anyone”.
Blurring national and local political lines
The main division lines between parties on the national level were not as distinct at the local level. In different towns, local dynamics brought together parties with opposing viewpoints to support a single candidate, showing a departure from strict ideological alignment. The pragmatic approach prevailed over ideological differences in the parties’ choice of local tactics.
For example, the current Mayor of Kresna, Nikolay Georgiev, enjoyed support from parties with pro-European, nationalist, left, and right views, including GERB, BSP, Levitsata, VMRO, and Bulgarski Vuzhod. Another example, among others, is the support of BSP and PP-DB, which are currently in opposition on the national level, for the same independent candidate in Haskovo – Nikolay Stavrev.
Depending on the local context, the choice of strategy followed by parties varied, often uniting against a specific candidate rather than rallying together in support of one. This often resulted in a protest vote by voters, particularly evident during the runoffs.
Eroding trust in the political system
Distrust in the political process and parties is evident through multiple indicators, including low voter turnout, a high number of invalid ballots, and a series of falsification scandals.
In the first round, voter turnout stood at 44.9 percent, and it was even lower in the second round at 36.87 percent. To put this in context, the 2019 local elections witnessed a 49.7 percent turnout in the first round and 42.1 percent in the second, while in 2015, the numbers were 53.6 percent and 40.83 percent respectively. This downward trend reflects a diminishing willingness among Bulgarians to engage in the democratic process, mainly due to scepticism about the fairness of elections and parties’ inability to gain citizens’ trust.
These elections were not without their share of falsification scandals, exacerbated by the last-minute decision of the Central Election Commission to prohibit machine voting in the first round due to suspicions of manipulation. In addition to disturbing videos from various towns showing members of the polling stations marking preferences on paper ballots while counting, there was a notable increase in the number of invalid ballots (15.5 percent in the first round), further distorting the results.
Growing fragmentation of the Bulgarian society
The growing fragmentation of Bulgarian society is starkly visible during these elections due to a number of factors, but primarily due to the inability of political parties to deliver on their promises and follow a clear political line.
Notably, the existing ruling coalition (called “non-coalition”) between the two primary adversaries in the Bulgarian Parliament, GERB and PP-DB, had a significant impact on their performance in the local elections. This alliance played a role in the exclusion of GERB’s candidate, Anton Hekimyan, from the runoff in Sofia and the slim 1.3 percent difference between Vasil Terziev (PP-DB) and Vania Grigorova (BSP, Levitsata).
The increasing fragmentation of Bulgarian society can also be attributed to geopolitical divisions, particularly in the context of Russia. Both candidates from the ruling coalition, Hekimyan (GERB) and Terziev (PP-DB) are clearly pro-European, pro-NATO, and unequivocal in their support for Ukraine. In contrast, Grigorova (BSP, Levitsata) was hesitant to comment on the war in Ukraine in interviews during her campaign and managed to win the pro-Russian voters.
In this light, the runoff in Sofia took on a geopolitical dimension and the tight contest between the two candidates reveals the divisions within Bulgarian society in their geopolitical orientation.
Personal charisma over party affiliation
The results also underlined the significant role of personal charisma, or its absence, in local elections, with candidates’ individual appeal and their campaign performance taking precedence over party affiliation. For instance, GERB received 22.95 percent support for the Sofia Municipal Council, while their mayoral candidate, Hekimyan, gained only 17.83 percent In contrast, BSP had limited support at 14.75 percent for the Sofia Municipal Council, yet their mayoral candidate, Grigorova, surpassed expectations with 46.9 percent in the runoff.
This demonstrates the considerable influence of a candidate’s individual qualities in local electoral outcomes, sometimes despite party affiliations. Grigorova managed to achieve this high result for a number of reasons: on one side, she consolidated the protest vote against the ruling parties, including pro-Russian voters, but on the other side, people tended to vote emotionally and her personal charisma also played a decisive role.
Implications for winners and losers
The 2023 Bulgarian local elections have delivered a nuanced outcome, ushering in new mayors in Sofia and Varna and breaking the long-standing GERB dominance. However, on a national scale, no single party emerged as a dominant force or a clear winner. The colourful mosaic of new mayors in different regions becomes even more diverse when considering the composition of Municipal Councils. In several cities, the party composition in the Municipal Councils does not secure a clear majority for the Mayor, which means that the governance could be done through so-called floating majorities on specific topics and policies with the risk of blockages.
These elections have shown that it is increasingly challenging for parties to secure a decisive mandate in a divided society. For the ruling parties, this fragile balance means that they should be more cautious at preserving the current government, while the opposition needs to consolidate further before pursuing new elections. Whether the local elections will have immediate implications on the national level will be known soon as the opposition party BSP plans a vote of no confidence.
