The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, eyeing an unprecedented third term, has tactically paired a referendum with the October 15 parliamentary elections. This confluence aims to impose PiS’ narrative on key issues, simultaneously capturing voter turnout and setting a trap for the opposition, notably Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform (PO). The goals are clear: rally your supporters, capture the undecided, and box in the opposition.
This strategy isn’t novel—former President Bronisław Komorowski (PO), in 2015, wagered on a referendum to enhance his re-election bid, but he couldn’t muster the 50 percent threshold and eventually lost the election. Current polls suggest the referendum could amplify party mobilisation. It also helps PiS circumvent campaign finance constraints, offering a blueprint for political strategists studying the dance between voter mobilisation and persuasion.
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Great insight. Could these referendums backfire against PiS as it did for Komorowski? I think issues like abortion and the drain on public services could have a galvanising effect on the bases of both the opposition and PiS, respectively. Thanks!
High polarisation can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it ensures a mobilised base. On the other, it might push undecided voters, who could be turned off by extreme positions, into the arms of the opposition. In an IPSOS poll from 22-25 September, asking the 19% of undecided people proportionally who they would vote for, the newly counted breakdown gives PO 4% points in comparison to PiS’ 2%:
PiS – 38.1%
KO – 33.0%
Lewica – 11.1%
Trzecia Droga – 8.7%
KONFEDERACJA – 7.7%
PiS’s strategy involves both mobilising its base and persuading undecided voters. However, there’s a fine line to tread. In trying to appeal to a broader audience, they might inadvertently alienate parts of their core base or not go far enough to sway the middle ground.