The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, eyeing an unprecedented third term, has tactically paired a referendum with the October 15 parliamentary elections. This confluence aims to impose PiS’ narrative on key issues, simultaneously capturing voter turnout and setting a trap for the opposition, notably Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform (PO). The goals are clear: rally your supporters, capture the undecided, and box in the opposition.
This strategy isn’t novel—former President Bronisław Komorowski (PO), in 2015, wagered on a referendum to enhance his re-election bid, but he couldn’t muster the 50 percent threshold and eventually lost the election. Current polls suggest the referendum could amplify party mobilisation. It also helps PiS circumvent campaign finance constraints, offering a blueprint for political strategists studying the dance between voter mobilisation and persuasion.