As the video call connected, Paweł Graś appeared wearing a grey Andy Warhol inspired t-shirt, and a visible European People’s Party logo shown in his Brussels office. For years, Graś has been a significant presence in European political circles.
From 2009 to 2014, Graś served as the spokesperson for Donald Tusk’s government. He’s also been a parliament member on several occasions and held the position of Secretary General of Civic Platform (PO) until 2014. He transitioned to the European stage with roles including Senior Policy and Communications Advisor and head of the cabinet for Tusk during his venture with the European Council and the European People’s Party.
Graś’s relationship with Tusk remains strong, and he is considered one of Tusk’s most trusted confidential advisors.
Having known and worked with him on our shared journey in the European political circles, our conversation quickly addressed the focal point of Poland’s upcoming elections: Tusk’s strategy against the incumbent Law and Justice Party (PiS).
“He’s trying to tell the truth,” Graś said. “Tusk’s main goal is actively trying to tell the truth about the economic and political situation despite all the propaganda and all the corruption done by this government.”
Election dynamics in the 2023 Polish election
Graś expressed concerns regarding the electoral landscape and what many analysts see as an uneven contest. “Simply these are not fair elections in Poland now because of money and propaganda, because one side doesn’t have the possibility to wage a fair campaign while the other party has all the means they need.”
The ruling conservative nationalist party not only has control of national public television and radio but also of regional media through the acquisition of a chain of provincial newspapers by a company close to PiS. Graś also commented on the strategic decision to hold a referendum on the same day as the elections, allowing PiS to utilise various resources for campaigning. This, according to Graś, creates a strategic challenge for PO.
On one hand, Graś admitted, it is difficult to tell people to vote in the election but not in the referendum, and on the other, there are also conflicting legal opinions about how to measure participation in the referendum. “What if someone takes a referendum ballot paper and then destroys it, does that count as having participated?” he asked, explaining how voters in small towns and villages, where everyone knows each other, were afraid to vote in the election but boycott the referendum for fear of being identified by local PiS officials.
Elaborating on campaign finances, Graś explained that PiS was spending five or six times as much as the opposition on digital campaigning. “The difference is huge,” he said. “PO was limited to a budget of 50 mln zlotys, whereas PiS effectively had unlimited financial support to spend.” The opposition had been boycotting state TV, but has now decided to participate again, because Tusk understood he needs to also reach that audience. However, “when opposition politicians participate in state TV panels, they face concerted attacks including from the journalists, who are really state functionaries,” he added.
Tusk’s approach to voter engagement
To counteract these disparities, Tusk has been actively engaging the public, participating in rallies across the country and especially in smaller towns and villages outside the big urban centres where PO is traditionally dominant. He also sought to mobilise voters with a mass protest march in Warsaw last Sunday in which the opposition-led city government estimated one million people participated. PiS said the turnout was much smaller and state TV largely ignored the event.
Turning to the issues most pertinent with voters, I asked if Tusk’s team had identified a silver bullet. His answer was the economy and corruption. “The main demographic, our main target, is reaching young voters. People are mainly concerned about money, how to find a job” he explained.
Asked whether Tusk’s threats to put PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski and the governor of the central bank on trial might not frighten undecided voters, he said: “People in Poland expect justice. People see with their own eyes corruption, nepotism, organised crime done by local and higher levels of PiS. Part of our strategy is to deliver the message that if someone committed a crime, they will be punished. Of course we don’t want to punish the voters or sympathisers of PiS. Our promise is that those who spent state money improperly, or acted against the constitution will face the justice system. It is not the next government but the justice system that will decide if they should be punished. Our policy is zero tolerance for corruption.”
On the topic of geopolitics and Poland’s stance on Ukraine, Graś shared insights about the government’s recent announcement to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine amid a dispute over Ukrainian grain exports, especially since, according to the latest Eurobarometer, 86 percent of Polish citizens support the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine.
“Citizens can feel fatigue,” he replied, “and it’s a reality that we still have Ukrainian refugees, that the state is still helping with healthcare and the social security system. I think government pollsters know that, and are trying to use the war context in Ukraine to maybe win this 1-3 percent of people who are unhappy with this situation – to secure this particular demographic.”
Closing thoughts: the high-stakes Polish election
“The future will be full of turbulence,” Graś warned, “because for sure the Polish election will be a catalysing factor for the future of Europe. If a pro-Russian like Orban wins this weekend in Slovakia (the interview took place before Robert Fico’s victory on a platform of stopping aid to Ukraine), it will be very difficult for European unity if we have a big country like Poland on the same page.”
With polls showing PiS has a consistent lead of at least 6 points over PO but is well short of an absolute majority, it is clear that Poland, and the EU, are at a crossroads. The political stakes couldn’t be higher.