As the June 2024 European elections approach, a critical question emerges in the public sphere: how should the European Centre-Right navigate a fragmented and polarised political landscape? The dilemma: anchor close to the centre, embracing moderate politics, or lean towards the right, countering the rise of populist and far-right factions?
The answer lies elsewhere: in understanding and appealing to Europe’s decisive electoral force, the middle class, while rising above traditional ideological dichotomies.
Balancing act: the centre-right’s dilemma
Centre-Right parties are in most cases big tents that host two major factions of voters: conservative traditionalists and liberal cosmopolitans. The former, closer to the conservative right, represent a significant base including professionals such as farmers, small business owners, and retirees. These are voters who prioritise stability, security, and tradition. On the other hand, the more affluent liberal cosmopolitans advocate for open economies, liberal social values and globalisation. The key lies in balancing these factions—but how?
Positioning the party in either direction risks alienating vital segments of the electorate. Leaning too close to the centre risks losing conservative traditionalists to the populist and radical parties on the right. Moving too far right creates the risk of losing pro-European and liberal supporters to social-democratic and liberal rivals in the centre-left.
The decision-making power of the middle class
“The best political community is formed by citizens of the middle class,” observes Aristotle in “Politics”. Two and a half millennia later, his view of the middle class as a stabilising force remains pertinent.
According to a recent report by Glocalities and the Wilfried Martnes Centre for European Studies, close to 40 percent of citizens across the EU identify as “middle class.” 18 percent of Europeans consider themselves “upper-middle class” and 11 percent “lower-middle class.”
Do the math; nearly 70 percent of Europeans identify with the middle class, while more than half the population perceive themselves as “middle” or “lower-middle” class, making their concerns and aspirations central to any political strategy.
Simply put, if the middle class was a political party, it would rule with a clear majority. Elections are fought on behalf of, and decided by, the middle class.
And yet the middle class is neither uniform nor static. It’s not a group but rather an identity, a way of life, and a set of values. Its members may stem from different ideological backgrounds and their specific concerns of the present or aspirations for the future may differ. And yet this diverse group shares a common desire for security, cooperation, economic stability, and social mobility, transcending monolithic political categorisations. They want to develop, improve their lives and those of their families, and to dream. Their vote is pivotal for any party seeking to form a majority.
Topics of concern by social class
Source: Data from Glocalities survey, April 2023
Beyond the obsolete politics of left versus right
To remain Europe’s largest political force, the European Centre-Right must therefore transcend traditional political dichotomies to rise above the left versus right pseudo-dilemma, and create a new political space at the top of a forming triangle. A strategic blend of conservative and liberal policies that resonate with middle-class values is crucial. Depending on polling results and insights, these could include combining tax reductions with social benefits; advocating for strong foreign or migration policies while embracing progressive social issues like same-sex marriage or reproductive rights; coupling privatisations with public investment in healthcare and public education; balancing strong stances on foreign policy with light(er) communication methods, such as Tiktok-friendly content. These are just examples; what is ultimately important is the ability to form alliances that cancel out static ideological divisions, offer pragmatic solutions to specific concerns, and include as many citizens as possible.
Conceptual diagram of triangulation adapted in the context of the centre-right
Note: The concept of triangulation in politics was initially employed by Dick Morris, the chief political advisor to Bill Clinton, as a strategic approach for securing Clinton’s reelection in the 1996 presidential campaign. Source: Campaign Lab
Implementing this strategy requires careful navigation of internal party dynamics and catering to both traditional and emerging voter bases. The potential reward is significant: a compelling vision that aligns with pragmatic middle-class politics and resonates across the political spectrum. It’s not just about winning the next elections; it’s about shaping a stable, prosperous, and inclusive European future.
