With 2023 in the rearview mirror, here at PartyParty, we’re already looking ahead towards 2024 to forecast whether these significant shifts and transformations will continue. This year, we’ve seen the misleading exit polls in Slovakia, last-minute victory of the PVV in the Netherlands, and Poland’s Law and Justice party dethroned after eight years in government. These are not isolated events but show deeper trends that political parties must grasp and adapt to as we move into 2024.
For political parties, understanding the nuances of these changes is crucial. Internal dynamics, ranging from leadership styles to policy development and grassroots engagement, play a critical role in shaping a party’s direction and public perception. Externally, evolving voter preferences, shifting alliances, and international geopolitical trends provide both challenges and opportunities. In 2024, the ability of political parties to adeptly navigate these internal and external dynamics will be a decisive factor in their success or failure. Let’s take a closer look at what’s ahead.
Coalition politics as the new normal
The trend in 2023: The trend of coalition governments in European politics, moving away from the dominance of single-party rule, was cemented this year. The Polish case was critical. In the 2023 elections, the opposition parties, notably the Civic Platform (PO), the Left (Lewica), and the Polish Coalition (Polska Koalicja), which includes the Polish People’s Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL) and Kukiz’15, realised the necessity of forming alliances to present a formidable challenge to the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS). This collaboration among diverse political entities, ranging from centre-right to left-leaning factions, was a strategic move to consolidate the opposition vote against the dominant PiS.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Policy comprises: The need to accommodate diverse views within the coalition will likely lead to more centrist policy proposals, as parties seek to find common ground that appeals to a broader electorate. But will the centre hold?
- More political fragmentation: For other countries who experience similar political fragmentation, the Polish case could serve as a model, demonstrating the effectiveness of coalition building in challenging dominant parties.
Rise of digital campaigning and AI
The trend in 2023: The year saw an unprecedented reliance on digital tools in political campaigns across Europe. Parties increasingly turned to social media, targeted online advertising, and data analytics to reach voters, influenced by the ongoing digital transformation and the social distancing measures from the COVID-19 era. This digital shift was not just about reaching voters but also about engaging them in more interactive and personalised ways.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Enhanced personalization in campaigns: Expect political campaigns to become even more personalised, using data analytics and AI to tailor messages to voters.
- Regulatory challenges: With the rise in digital campaigning, there will likely be increased scrutiny and potential regulation regarding data privacy and online political advertising.
The gains of right-wing populists
The trend in 2023: Throughout 2023, right-wing populist parties gained significant momentum in Europe (SMER in Slovakia, PVV in Netherlands, AfD in Germany), marked by their strong stances on migration, national sovereignty, and a critical view of the European Union. This surge posed a dilemma for mainstream conservative and centre-right parties, torn between adopting a hard-right discourse or focusing on different policy areas.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Strategic dilemmas for mainstream parties: Expect mainstream parties to face tough choices in strategy, either aligning with right-wing populist rhetoric on issues like migration and national identity or differentiating themselves with alternative policy focuses.
- Influence on European political landscape: The consolidation of right-wing populism could significantly alter the balance of power in the European Parliament
dynamicsand change national policies, potentially obstructing further European integration and polarising societies.
Increased political fragmentation
The trend in 2023: National electoral systems for the European Parliament (EP), characterised by proportional representation and relatively low thresholds for representation in most countries, have facilitated the emergence and success of a wide array of splinter parties. This has allowed smaller, often more ideologically distinct parties to gain a foothold in the EP, contributing to a more fragmented political landscape.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Increase in smaller parties in the EP: Expect to see a growing presence of smaller, potentially unconventional parties in the European Parliament. These ‘minnows’ might bring fresh perspectives but could also add to the complexity of forming coherent policy agendas.
- Challenges in legislative consensus: The rise in the number of small and diverse parties could make it harder to build stable majorities for legislation and policy within the EP, leading to a less predictable legislature.
The surge in localised political movements
The trend in 2023: In the past year, Europe saw a rise in localised political movements like the “Baltic Green Wave” in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These movements, addressing specific regional issues such as coastal conservation and sustainable fishing, have emerged as powerful forces. Their appeal to local communities, who feel sidelined by national parties, and their success in elections highlight their growing impact in shaping both national and European political landscapes.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Growth of regional parties: Expect more regional movements like the “Baltic Green Wave” to emerge, with a focus on local issues. These parties might gain more seats in local and national parliaments, influencing policy decisions.
- Impact on national politics: Mainstream parties may need to collaborate with or address the agendas of these regional movements to maintain their voter base, leading to a more diverse political landscape.
- Challenge to European unity: The rise of such movements could introduce challenges to the EU’s cohesion, as regional interests might conflict with broader European objectives.
Environmental policies as key electoral issues
The trend in 2023: Environmental issues moved to the forefront of political discourse in 2023. Climate change, sustainable development, and green energy policies became central themes in election campaigns as both the increase in climate-driven disasters and the cost to households of the energy transition became more tangible, reflecting the growing public concern about environmental issues and the influence of green parties and movements.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Green policies in mainstream politics: Traditional parties will likely integrate more green policies into their platforms, trying to capture the environmentally conscious electorate.
- Youth mobilisation: Young voters, who are particularly passionate about environmental issues, may become a more influential demographic, potentially impacting election outcomes.
A “greenlash” response
The trend in 2023: A notable backlash emerged against various policies under the European Green Deal in 2023. This “Greenlash” predominantly stemmed from groups such as motorists, farmers, frequent fliers, and consumers who felt that the environmental policies adversely affected their interests or livelihoods. These groups expressed concerns over increased costs, restrictions, and regulatory changes impacting their daily lives and economic stability.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Amplification of opposition movements: The backlash against green policies is likely to grow, potentially leading to more vocal and organised opposition movements, especially from sectors most affected by these policies. This could significantly diminish support for green parties. It may also boost the vote of climate-sceptical far-right parties.
- Policy adjustments and political responses: Policymakers may face increasing pressure to modify or reconsider certain aspects of the Green Deal to address the concerns of affected groups, leading to a complex balancing act between environmental goals and economic impacts.
Migration wars
The trend in 2023: The year saw heightened tensions over migration within the European Union as the number of arrivals of irregular migrants rose. These tensions manifested themselves in border pushbacks, discussions around border closures, building fences or stricter controls, and disputes among EU Member States regarding responsibility for accepting, hosting, or returning migrants. This trend reflects the ongoing challenges in balancing humanitarian responsibilities with national security, social integration and public opinion.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Intensified border policies: Anticipate more rigorous border policies, including potential closures or enhanced controls, as nations grapple with migration flows and security concerns.
- Diplomatic strains among EU members: Disagreements among EU countries over migration policies are likely to continue, possibly leading to diplomatic tensions and persistent challenges in forging a unified EU stance on migration management.
The Gaza effect
The trend in 2023: The conflict between Israel and Hamas had far-reaching effects beyond the Middle East, particularly in multi-ethnic, multi-faith European societies. In 2023, this “Gaza Effect” led to increased politicisation of the conflict within these societies, occasionally spilling over into street demonstrations and, in some cases, violence. This trend underscores the global interconnectedness of local and international conflicts and their capacity to influence domestic social and political landscapes.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Heightened tensions in specific European countries: Countries with significant Muslim and Jewish populations, such as France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, may see continued or increased tensions related to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This could manifest in public demonstrations, political debates, or deteriorating community relations.
- Impact on domestic policies and social cohesion: The ongoing fallout from the conflict might influence domestic policies regarding immigration, integration, and community relations, potentially posing challenges to social cohesion in multi-ethnic and multi-faith societies.
The cost-of-living effect
The trend in 2023: The past two years have seen a significant rise in the cost of living across Europe, driven largely by energy and food price inflation which has eroded living standards. Many Europeans, particularly those with floating-rate mortgages and first-time borrowers, have felt increasingly worse off and financially insecure. This trend reflects the broad economic challenges facing the continent, where rising prices have outpaced income growth for many households.
What to look out for in 2024:
- Continued economic strain on households: Despite a potential dip in headline inflation, the lingering effects of increased living costs are likely to remain a critical issue for many European citizens, affecting their spending power and financial well-being.
- Political and social repercussions: The cost-of-living crisis could significantly influence political dynamics, with parties and leaders being judged on their response to these economic challenges. Polls suggest it is the top issue for voters in most EU countries and the UK. It may also lead to increased social unrest or demonstrations as citizens express their frustrations and demands for relief.
