Have parties lost their foundational role in Europe? Depends where you put the emphasis. If it’s on membership numbers, then the future is grim for European parties. Once a mainstay of European politics, membership has seen a stark decline in recent years, plummeting to just 4.7 percent of national electorates across 27 democracies. It’s a wake-up call for traditional parties grappling with a society that’s rapidly changing, where traditional forms of political engagement won’t do. Let’s take a look at the key factors driving this trend.
Increasing political disenchantment
Gone are the days when joining a party was a common milestone in one’s life. Today, especially among the younger generations, that tradition feels increasingly outdated. The data reflect a stark reality: across Europe, a pervasive sense of political disillusionment is eroding the foundations of party memberships.
In the UK, for example, there was a fleeting moment of mobilisation in 2017 when party memberships saw a modest rise of nearly 1.2 percent from 2013, only to dip back down by December 2021. This up-and-down pattern signals a volatile engagement trend, where temporary surges in political interest among the youth are overshadowed by a more persistent tendency of disconnection and apathy.
This phenomenon isn’t isolated. A sweeping look across Europe reveals that a significant portion of citizens feel their voice is rarely, if ever, heard in the political arena. Recent research highlights that over half of individuals living in democratic countries feel their input has little to no impact on political outcomes, with 54 percent believing their voice doesn’t influence decisions and 64 percent thinking their government acts against their interests. Moreover, the trend of non-voters becoming the largest voter block since the 1990s underscores a deep-seated political apathy, marking it as a dominant shift since the late 20th century.
Trust deficit in political institutions
If there’s one thing that can send party memberships into freefall, it’s a lack of trust. And right now, trust is in short supply. From the police to the judiciary and the media, no institution is immune, but parties seem to be bearing the brunt of this crisis. Over the past two decades, data from 18 European countries show political parties are at the bottom of the rankings when it comes to trust in political institutions.
This trust deficit, driven partly by scandals and corruption, has reduced mainstream party memberships while opening space for newer parties at the same time. Spain’s left-wing Podemos party emerged in response to widespread dissatisfaction with how traditional parties addressed economic crises and corruption. Meanwhile, the rise of populist and nationalist parties in Europe, such as the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), reflect broader disillusionment with traditional political families.These movements have capitalised on public dissatisfaction with how established parties have addressed issues like economic crises, migration, and worsening socio-economic inequality, promising more direct solutions and challenging the status quo.
Podemos and the rise of populist far-right parties underscores a broader trend: when mainstream parties fail to uphold integrity and effectiveness, membership declines as voters look for alternatives that promise transparency and accountability.
The impact of social media
Social media—the double-edged sword of modern activism. Platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram have turned into battlegrounds for political discourse, offering direct activism that bypasses party structures. The Fridays for Future movement exemplifies this shift. Initiated by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, the movement galvanised young Europeans to demand action on climate change, circumventing political parties.
This shift towards direct activism, exemplified by movements and visual campaigns across social platforms, underscores a growing preference for issue-specific engagement. Movements like Extinction Rebellion leverage social media’s visual capabilities for widespread impact, illustrating a new paradigm of political communication that prioritises visual storytelling and direct action over conventional party affiliations.
The fragmentation of the political spectrum
The fragmentation of Europe’s political spectrum has led to a decline in membership of historically rooted parties, as newer parties emerge to cater to specific interests or causes. Volt Europa is an example of a party formed with a specific cause, aiming to create a federal Europe where everyone has equal opportunities. Pirate parties have emerged in several countries to support digital libertarianism.
This diversification reflects voters’ shifting preferences towards movements that promise more tailored solutions to contemporary issues, challenging the broad-based appeal of established parties. As a result, political engagement is becoming more specialised, diluting the support base of larger, big-tent parties and contributing to their decline in membership. However, it has also led to a rise in right-wing populist parties, with Italy’s Brothers of Italy and Sweden’s Sweden Democrats gaining significant vote shares.
Changing societal values
In the 21st century, collectivism is out and individualism is in. European Social Survey data over the last three decades have shown a substantive increase in support for values like personal freedom (18 percent), and individual autonomy (7.6 percent). This emphasis on autonomy and focus on personalised issues as individuals seek representation that directly aligns with their personal values and concerns, challenges traditional broad-based political parties. Consequently, this swing towards individualist politics contributes to a decline in party membership, as people are less inclined to commit to parties that do not reflect their nuanced preferences, leading to a fragmented political landscape with a proliferation of niche parties. A similar trend can be observed in the decline in church and trade union membership.
Big-tent mass political parties were features of a more stratified society where large groups of workers toiled on production lines, in typing pools, and for large corporations. The change in the nature of work, the growth of the services sector, the rise of automation and digitisation have atomised societies. Politics, too, has become more fragmented, individualised and radicalised.
Europe has seen this change play out with the rise of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia, gaining a significant amount of seats in the 2019 elections, Spain’s hard-right Vox party, which saw an increase in seats during the November 2019 election, and, most recently, with the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Germany.
Adapt to Europe’s evolving electorate
The decline in party membership across Europe isn’t just a statistic; it’s a reflection of a society in flux. There’s no way back to the old world.
For political parties, the message is clear: adapt or perish. Embracing the values of personal freedom and direct engagement might just be the key to reconnecting with an electorate that’s eager for change. After all, standing still and leaning on older, traditional notions of political engagement is not an option if you want to win elections.
