Political alliances, often likened to marriages, are prone to ‘divorce’ when interests diverge significantly. The delicate balance of investing in a relationship while ensuring mutual benefits can be challenging. When does an alliance reach its breaking point, and what signs herald its demise? The Fidesz-EPP relationship offers a compelling case study.
Fidesz: a journey from liberalism to populism
Fidesz, founded by Viktor Orbán in 1988 as an anti-communist, liberal youth party, has drastically transformed over the years. Following losses in the early 90s, Fidesz veered rightward, intensifying after their 1998 election win. After Fidesz lost to a socialist-liberal coalition in 2002 and 2006, they understood their many weaknesses and found ways to ensure no fragmentation of any kind would occur on their own side.
They shifted more towards conservative and nationalist positions, offering an alternative to the embarrassing performance of the socialist governments of the time. The move paid off when in 2010, Orbán became Prime Minister again with a two-thirds ⅔ supermajority. Orbán initiated a regime build-up, curtailing media freedoms and altering the Constitution, aligning Hungary closer to his vision.
EPP and Fidesz: a tenuous dance
The European People’s Party (EPP), a centre-right group in the European Parliament, maintained Fidesz as a member despite these alarming shifts. Orbán was even chosen as Vice President of the EPP multiple times. Fidesz’s presence within the EPP, while it pursued policies and rhetoric that contravened these principles, seemed at odds with the EU’s aspirations for a united and values-based union. At this time, however, neither party was interested in erupting an all-out conflict.
Fidesz did start an intricate dance with the EU institutions each time questions were raised about any of the approved new legislations. Fidesz skilfully navigated EU criticism, making superficial concessions while achieving their desired outcomes, as exemplified by the CEU controversy. Nevertheless, EU leaders argued (especially Angela Merkel of Germany, who even praised Hungary for spending the EU funds to the benefit of the country) that it’s better to have Orbán amongst us, and persuade him or negotiate with him behind the closed doors of EPP, then have him out of the club. This status quo lasted for years, as a member of the CDU said, “Merkel and Orban both have full respect towards one another. This is not a love story, but a pragmatic work relationship.” But then, Merkel announced her retirement, and things changed.
Fidesz breaking point in the EPP
Merkel’s retirement marked a turning point. Her departure weakened the argument for keeping Fidesz within the EPP. The 2019 EP election campaign further strained relations, with Fidesz’s provocative and potentially anti-Semitic campaign posters directly targeting EPP-nominated Jean-Claude Juncker. Juncker outright stated that “Fidesz does not belong to the EPP”. When Fidesz was given an ultimatum, Manfred Webber stated that Orbán should apologise to Juncker and let CEU remain in Budapest. In the end, Orbán didn’t give in, and some days later, Fidesz’s membership in the EPP was suspended,leaving them in a state of limbo, with the chance to mend the relationship.
Aftermath: a party in limbo
This state of limbo lasted almost two years. Fidesz kept voting on most issues with EPP, but they were not part of the usual internal processes anymore. The relationship didn’t heal but quite the opposite. Orbán managed to undermine (with Macron) Webber’s candidacy to become President of the Commision, Fidesz introduced even harsher laws on the back of the COVID pandemic, granting them even more power to create legislation without parliamentary oversight, an MEP from Fidesz was caught fleeing a gay sex orgy in Brussels during lockdown, and the final trigger came when Tamás Deutsch, another MEP from Fidesz likened Webber to Gestapo and AVH (the communist secret police in Hungary, during the harshest time of the previous regime).
In March 2021, almost two years after their suspension, Fidesz announced that they would leave the EPP. Fidesz tried to save face by declaring their departure as a decision of their own, but it was obvious that they were forced out.
Since then, Fidesz has not joined any other political family in the EP, and in fact, they still vote on most issues with the EPP. Orbán was expecting a new right-wing coalition to be formed, that he and his Fidesz could join, but this hasn’t been formalised just yet – and with the start of the war in Ukraine, and that distancing Fidesz even from some of its closest allies, it’s hard to tell when and if this could ever happen.
The EU’s cautionary tale
The delay in addressing Fidesz’s actions and rhetoric serves as a cautionary tale for the EU. The lesson is a simple one – when European leaders deviate from the core values of the EU, they should be addressed promptly and firmly. The EPP’s hesitance to act against Fidesz was partly due to concerns over internal unity and the EU’s inherent nature of compromise and cooperation.
Lessons learned and the way forward
The EU appears to have learned from this experience, as evidenced by its adoption of the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation. The big question remains: can the EU effectively enforce adherence to its core values and instigate change in parties like Fidesz? This remains a pivotal issue in Brussels and across Europe.
