Greeks will go to the polls on June 9th to vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and decide who will fill the country’s 21 EP seats. One year after winning a snap election, the centre-right New Democracy (ND) party is set to be one of few EU ruling parties to also have successful results in the EP election. Some of the party’s success can also be attributed to a divided left-wing opposition. The driving factors behind the current party dynamics and what can be expected from the Greek EP elections are explored below.
Political and social dynamics since 2019
Economic woes
Greece is one of the poorest EU member states and has the highest unemployment rate in the EU. The decade following the financial crash was particularly painful for the country, then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, creating an economic crisis for countries across the EU. A recent survey found that 74 percent of Greeks report that their standard of living has decreased over the last five years.
Greece received over 36 billion euro in a mix of grants and loans from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility. However, critics point to a majority of these funds being directed to a small amount of large business, instead of being distributed more broadly to small and medium-sized businesses. Very little of it has gone to social programmes, such as building affordable housing, leaving Greeks particularly vulnerable economically.
Democratic backsliding
Under the conservative ND party’s rule, Greece has been suffering from democratic backsliding. The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute marked Greece as a “major autocratizer” in 2022, which signifies a democracy that is in “steep decline.” The V-Dem Institute downgraded Greece from a liberal democracy to an electoral democracy in its 2023 report. A further indication of the slippery slope the country is on, is Greece’s ranking on the 2024 World Press Freedom Index: 88, making it the EU country with the lowest ranking.
There are two prominent cases that were harmful to the rule of law. First, a wiretapping scandal that involved the office of the Prime Minister as well as the National Intelligence Service. Political opponents and journalists, among others, were targeted. More recently, Greeks feel that the government tried to cover up those who hold responsibility for a train crash that killed dozens of people in Tempi in 2023. The government attempted to manipulate the investigations into both of these cases, either directly or indirectly.
Resulting from this was the EP’s resolution on media freedom and rule of law in Greece. The EP expressed concern about threats to Greece’s democracy and fundamental rights and freedoms. The resolution, which passed with 330 MEPs voting in favour of it, condemned the use of intelligence services to spy on opposition figures, as well as “attacks and smear campaigns” targeted at human rights organisers and migrants.
The Left in shambles
With a poor economic situation for the majority of Greek citizens and serious problems over the rule of law, press freedom, fundamental rights, and democracy, it may come as a surprise that Mitsotakis and his ND party remain strong. Mitsotakis has been in office since 2019 and his party leads in the polls for the upcoming EP election by a huge margin. However, the success of the conservatives can be attributed in large part to a fractured left-wing.
Last year’s snap election saw the collapse of Syriza, a left-wing political party and the main opposition to ND. The party’s electoral strength nearly halved. Syriza’s leader of 15 years, Alexis Tsipras, resigned in its aftermath.
After a polarising election process, Stefanos Kasselakis, a member of the Greek diaspora who had been living in the United States and who previously worked at Goldman Sachs, became the new president of the left-wing Syriza. However, Kasselakis alienated many parts of the party as he tried to bring it more to the right on some issues and made statements that were read as pro-capitalist. At the end of last year, there was a split in the party, with many members leaving.
For the broader left in Greece, whose three largest parties include Syriza, the Communist Party (KKE), and the centre-left PASOK (which used to be one of two main Greek political parties, along with ND), the EP elections are not about making gains against ND, but rather about establishing a main opposition party. For now, it seems that role will remain with Syrizia.
Greece’s election results since 2019
2019 EP election result
The last EP elections saw the EPP affiliated party, ND, win eight of Greece’s 21 EP seats, after gaining 33 percent of the vote. The left wing party, Syriza, ended with slightly under 24 percent support, leading to six EP seats. The centre-left, S&D affiliated political alliance formed around one of Greece’s oldest and once-largest political parties. Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), came in third, with just 7.7 percent of the vote and two EP seats. KKE won 5.6 percent and two seats in the EP. The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn won just under five percent, leading to two seats in the EP. This party has since been banned in Greece, but new parties with strong ties to Golden Dawn have sprung up in its place. The ECR affiliated far-right Greek Solution (EL) won one EP seat, securing just over four percent of the vote.
2023 snap legislative elections
In May of last year, snap parliamentary elections were held, leading to an unexpected victory for the Prime Minister Mitsotakis from ND. However, no party gained a majority and no coalition government was formed, leading Mitsotakis to call for a second snap election the following month. The results of the June election led to ND gaining seats and Syriza, the biggest opposition party, losing seats. ND won 40.5 percent support and Syriza only 17.8 percent. The centre-left came in third with just under 12 percent. KKE won nearly eight percent. The extreme-right Spartans and the far-right Victory Party (NIKI) both entered the national parliament for the first time, with 4.6 percent and 3.7 percent respectively. The anti-establishment leftwing, Course of Freedom (PE), also entered parliament for the first time after gaining 3.2 percent of the vote. The far-right Greek Solution (EL) won 4.4 percent of the vote
What to expect
With only one year having elapsed since Greeks last went to the polls in a nation-wide election, here is where the parties stand now. ND is at 32 percent, more than double the support of the next most-popular party, left-wing Syriza, which sits at 16 percent. The centre-left Movement for Change, which is the coalition around the S&D affiliated PASOK, is a few points below Syriza at 13 percent. At eight percent is the non affiliated KKE and the ECR-affiliated, right-wing populist Greek Solution.
Four small and relatively new parties remain. There is the anti-establishment, leftwing populist party, Course of Freedom, and the far-right, ultranationalist Victory, both polling at four percent. At three percent is MeRA25, a leftwing party founded by former Finance Minister and Syriza MP, Yanis Varouflakis. Finally, at two percent is the extreme-right Spartans party, which has deep connections to the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, whose leaders were convicted of running a criminal organisation and sentenced to prison.
The EP election will further solidify Mitsotakis’ and ND’s powerful position in Greece, for now. However, signs of social unrest and dissatisfaction are present in the country. Most recently, in the winter of 2024, a grassroots student movement organised around protesting the privatisation of universities formed. This is an indication that an organised left could be revived. Another possible future, following the ND’s predicted success in the June EP election, is a PM and party that undermines Greece’s democracy in order to hold on to power.